Monday 15 May 2017

The "This had better not really be the Brexit election" election - day 27


Not much longer to "wait for the manifesto"

We now (think we) know the publication date of the post-leak Labour manifesto (Tuesday 16 May) and the Conservative offering (Thursday 18 May).  Any more for any more?

The Brexit election


Robert Peston interviewed David Davis, Secretary of State for Leaving the European Union, this morning.  I know the department name actually says "Exiting", but that's execrable English. It does make jokes possible though.


My main observation about David Davis since he was appointed to this position is that he's enjoying it far too much.  Even he admitted that the process he oveersees is "the defining issue of the age" (and I'm involved in it, yippee!).  A successful Brexit is the basis for successful economic strategy, he argued, and therefore the basis for provision of public services.

"In the last nine months," he said, "we have taken through the House of Commons the Article 50 bill."  He neglects to mention that they had no intention of taking anything through parliament until the supreme court told them that was their job.

This election, Davis told us, is to get a mandate for the kind of Brexit a Tory government would go for.  Which suggests that the manifesto should be specific.  Not necessarily detailed - there will eventually be negotiations after all - but specific.  No free movement, no ECJ is specific.  "Best possible deal" is not.

Davis dismissed the "hard" and "soft" labels as propaganda, but was quite happy to recognise that there isn't total agreement on what Brexit means (apart, of course, from Brexit).  Sorry mate, while you were unwilling to talk to us, we carried on and we had to come up with some terms.

"That's what the public voted for" - no single market, no customs union, no European Court of Justice, control of immigration.  "They knew... Both sides said we'd have to leave the single market..."  Which is presumably why Brexiters have to keep on telling us "what the public voted for", and it's rarely exactly the same thing.

May & co will be "seeking a comprehensive free trade agreement, covering all products and all services" plus a customs agreement guaranteeing "frictionless trade", the "most beneficial economic outcome".  They have to retain the option to walk out, because it is possible to imagine a deal which is worse than having no deal at all.  I wish they'd give me a clue about what that might be like.

Unfair screenshot catching Davis between facial expressions

Peston asked if the government accept the structure of negotiations set out by all the institutions of the EU - "sufficient progress" on the formula for a financial settlement, citizens' rights and Ireland before any thought can be given to the future.

"Not entirely," replied Davis, "and that'll be the first discussion."  He saw no problem on citizens' rights, but in his view "not entirely" obviously means "not much at all".  "There will be arguments of fine detail,"  he went on,  "like whether the ECJ oversees these rights..."  Sorry, that's not a detail either to them or to you.  And as was pointed out during the show...




"What we're after is a very generous outcome,"  was another familiar formula.  During the referendum campaign that usually meant that "we" would be generous to "them", but the EU27 will surely see the outcome Davis described as "them" being generous to "us".  He proposed that the rights which expats have now would be frozen, not acknowledging any disagreement over what family rights that would imply.

On the subject of who would oversee these rights Davis affected to be insulted by the idea that British courts wouldn't be qualified - "We have some fine courts".  Our supreme court could be assumed to be up to the job, he maintained, as indeed it could if there was a treaty to that effect, which is the subject of some negotiation.  And British expats in an EU country won't be able to seek redress in a British court.

Davis was able to dodge the money issue completely, and quoted Article 50 as saying negotiations would proceed "taking into account the ongoing relationship".  The text is actually "taking account of the framework for [the withdrawing member state's] future relationship".  May & co never remember the word framework but the EU do, and that's the basis on which they are proceeding.

On Ireland Davis had a good point.  It's difficult to see how progress could be made on border issues until a customs relationship has been covered at least in principle.  But his casual accusation that the EU were using the "wrong interpretation of the treaty" and that there'll be a "row over the summer" (as I said in my post on 4 May) means that the ECJ might have to expect a referral.

A  "lot of nonsense" is talked about trade deals and how long it will take, claimed Davis.  (I'd suggest the main nonsense is that two years.  There's no time limit on a trade deal, since it's not part of the Article 50 process.)  He was casual about wasting yet more months agreeing a new negotiating structure (=tearing up the guidelines) over the summer and anyway "if they wanted to they had have another summit" before autumn to agree it all. But why would they "want to"?

Peston pressed him, suggesting that his recent conversations with European leaders didn't back Davis's line.  Even friendly countries like Poland won't talk trade until they know about the money.  Davis shrugged the question off - either they receive money and don't want to lose it or they're net contributors and don't want to pay more - as if that dealt with the issue.

He quoted the EU's "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" and proclaimed that he is "quite happy with that".  Except for the "detail" of expats' rights of course.  "We want to see everything packaged up together and that's what we're going to do."  Well that's all right then.

Overall, Davis's approach was jovial and untroubled.  He never actually said everything is going to be straightforward but that was the impression given.  "Flippant" was one Twitter comment.

Critics of Davis's attitude and legal assertions queued up.









More evidence that David Davis and his crew have a lot more  to think about than they admit in public keeps coming up.





Davis should be reminded frequently of his recent contribution to the DExEU select committee.








But an undertaking from the leader herself casts doubt on any argument that "no deal" might be acceptable.







Other things did happen, but 1150 words will have to do.

Here's @Adamstoon1 take on recent stories coming out of Downing Street .... pic.twitter.com/RiLIvaPrfK




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