Monday 22 May 2017

The "Nothing has changed; nothing has changed" election - day 35


#MrsME is the focus of the news, and not in a good way


We woke to news that many councils are not providing social care clients with the currently available option of deferring their payments.  This has been discovered within four days of the Tory manifesto launch, and suggests that the rumours are right - the now much-discussed social care policy was a late addition and wasn't checked with the cabinet.  Or sanity-checked from the looks of things.

The Tories had spent the weekend defending the social care proposals, often fluently but in rather similar (scripted? surely not) terms, and you had to question their sincerity.  On Thursday, "manifesto day" itself, Jeremy Hunt had said "... not only are we dropping [the cap on charges] but we are dropping it ahead of a general election and we're being completely explicit in our manifesto that we're dropping it.  We're dropping it because we've looked again at this proposal and we don't think it's fair."

At  lower levels within this party, the activists who actually canvass real people, the mood was more confused, shading into tentative rebellion.  The pound slid a little at the beginning of the day, with City types in part blaming uncertainty over social care (and therefore doubts over #MrsME's #StrongAndStable™ leadership).

The biggest sign of jitters might have been the paid ads, noticed at least as early as Sunday night.





Theresa May took her backdrop to Wrecsam, but as she spoke many were reading George Osborne's latest contribution to the Conservative cause, followed by a tough Evening Standard editorial:  "This isn’t for consultation after an election — it’s an issue of honesty before an election".





"Since my manifesto has been published it has been subject to fake claims by Jeremy Corbyn,"  May claimed.  And then she "clarified" the policy, telling us  "This manifesto says that we will come forward with a consultation paper, a government green paper. And that consultation will include an absolute limit on the amount people have to pay for their care costs".  We all strained our ears for the sound of ministers swearing.

The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg was given the first question and challenged May to account for the social care U-turn.  The #StrongAndStable™ prime minister waffled a large amount of detail, dodged the direct question, implied that there had been no change and launched into another attack on Corbyn.  All the questioners followed the U-turn line.






BBC News and Reality Check spoke only of U-turns and rapid climbdowns but #MrsME wasn't giving in - the Financial Times reported  "an agitated Mrs May insisted:  'Nothing has changed; nothing has changed'".

Earlier in the speech she celebrated Welsh voters' decision to ignore "hysterical warnings" from Labour, the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru during the referendum campaign.  She seemed to forget that her own government, and she herself, had taken the same position.  At one point she accused the other parties of "ignoring Wales".  Plaid Cymru ignoring Wales?  Perhaps I misheard.

David Butler, the man who knows everything about elections so that the rest of us don't have to, considers this policy change to be unprecedented.





One thing that "#MrsME and my team" keep saying is that the measure still protects £100,000 "so you will always have something to pass on to your family".  Does she think we all have that much to give to our children?  Do all the Just About Managings have £100,000?  I know I haven't.

And finally a word from somebody who recently worked in the Home Office:  "May... used to 'consult'.  Staff received loaded questions and later were told  'This is what you agreed to'."  An attempt to provide an advisory statement (surely the function of the civil service) was met with criticism that these "actions were considered disruptive... personal views were not relevant"



Sing-along-a-Labour


Labour had moved on to Hull (UK City of Culture 2017) to launch their culture manifesto.  Emma Hardy (Labour, Hull West and Hessle, candidate, majority to beat 9,333) introduced Tom Watson (Labour, West Bromwich East, majority 9,470), who had a hairdo which would have gone well with a set of leathers.  He told us about his university days and about popping into a club the night before to see three bands for £3!  "Arts and culture bring us together,"  he said,  "which we need in the divisions which have followed the referendum".

Then on came Jeremy Corbyn, with his customary litany of thanks.  He referred to a replica of Amy Johnson's Gypsy Moth, which was made for this year's celebrations by inmates of Hull prison.


"Well done Hull.  Well done the prisoners. Well done Amy Johnson (!)"  The next celebration was of a series of photographs of naked Hullensians painted blue.  "In a very nice way, the people of Hull made an exhibition of themselves."

Both Corbyn and Watson showed knowledge of the local venues, which can be researched, but also of the way musicians and artists work.  I can't imagine #MrsME being this comfortable (with anything).  Jeremy Hunt, in his early incarnation as coalition culture minister might have pulled it off, but he'd never have been so relaxed.

Major themes of Labour's cultural manifesto are a £1 billion capital fund for culture and an arts pupil premium to give every child a chance to play a musical instrument and other artistic pursuits.  "We'll not just feed our children's stomachs, we will feed their minds and unleash their creativity,"  announced Corbyn.



Saboteurs department


The EU Council handed a detailed negotiating mandate to Michel Barnier on Monday to define his objectives and what he is and isn't allowed to say in the Brexit negotiations.  Knowing this was due might have been why David Davis started going on at the weekend about walking out of the talks with no deal, which attracted a lot of attention.




There are several detailed legal analyses available, but I like this summary.



And this one on walking out without a deal,



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