Saturday 29 April 2017

The "Where is Mrs ME" election - day 11

One little Brexit question

Not for the first time, David Davis (Haltemprice and Howden, majority 16,195) admitted that the UK's residency application process for EU nationals can't handle Brexit.  Some people read that as meaning simply that there's no hurry to apply for permanent residency because "we've got two years", but people have been told to sign up for an email alert, which surely means they're waiting for a new system to come in.

Oxford University's Migration Observatory told the DExEU select committee that "at pre-referendum rates of processing, giving residence documents to all potentially eligible applicants would take the equivalent of 140 years" while "the Home Office has also seen its full time equivalent staff reduced by 10 per cent since 2010".

Other witnesses told the committee that the rules of eligibility for residence (at the most basic, when you have to have arrived to qualify) and the rights and responsibilities that residence confers on an EU expat have to be established by the withdrawal negotiations. Even those who have already been granted residence might have to re-apply if the finally agreed status is different from the current definition.


Housing again


It was another housing day, with a number of themed reports by the Radio 4 Today programme.  They gave the current housing minister Gavin Barwell (Croydon Central, majority 165) a platform to attack Corbyn for pledging the same number of homes as the Tories - a million - but proposing that half of them would be council housing.

This continued to present the Tories as the "party of home ownership" but didn't really look at the effect a large number of social rents would have on the private rental market.  It also avoided the more detailed Labour proposal I reported yesterday:  "100,000 new affordable homes each year to rent and buy, with councils playing a big part in that".

One interesting feature of current Tory policy Barwell reminded us of was "accelerated construction", in which government gets into a joint venture with a builder rather than just selling off surplus land.  This might get things moving (or it might not) but, importantly, it might improve the returns on disposal of public land which are reported to be too low in fire sale circumstances.


The day's economic figures


"We need to get over ourselves,"  wrote Chris Giles in the FT, describing Britain's misplaced sense of economic superiority.  Theresa ME and others talk of the UK's "strong economy" but we're not specially good on any measure - "stuck in the middle without low US tax rates, without German public services and without even Italian productivity levels".

GDP was reported to be 0.3% up in the first three months of the year - a slowdown was expected, but this was below initial expectations, from a quarter in which Brexit was finally sketched out and kicked off.  The pound has continued to trickle up since the election was announced, which will be taken by some as a hankering after Strong And Stable Leadership ™.  House prices fell for the second month running and "only" rose by 2.6% (on average, across the country) over the year to April.

As one of George Osborne's old mates in finance said:





Press commentators observed:








Political responses were predictable.  Philip Hammond (Conservative, Runnymede and Weybridge, majority 22,134) said the numbers show the requirement for continuing strong economy, high employment, and strong and stable leadership (yawn).  Vince Cable (LibDem candidate, Twickenham, majority to beat 2017) said GDP slowdown could continue, or might not (thanks for that).  John McDonnell (Labour, Hayes and Harlington, majority 16,700) was careful not to mention Brexit but told us that growth is falling away under the Tories and threatening living standards.


Kipper time

Paul Nuttall launched the party's campaign, claiming that this is an election on UKIP's (policy) turf.  UKIP will be targeting its resources and standing aside for "true Brexiteers" in "tens" of constituencies (if the local parties obey) and UKIP has a great future (asked whether he'll resign if he loses again, Nuttall said no).  Nigel Farage will be around during the campaign, which "would never have happened" without Channel 4's reporting on Tory election expenses offences.

Nuttall set out a few policy themes - PR, an English parliament (sound of five hands clapping), get rid of the House of Lords,  strongly anti-FGM (good as a headline, but this is UKIP remember), cut the aid budget...

Somebody asked why Nuttall was no longer committed to Stoke Central (what with his extensive property empire in the city). He went into any-politician-you've-ever-seen mode, praising the local party branch and the dedication they would show to whichever candidate they select that isn't him.

Nuttall thoroughly enjoyed teasing the journalists about where he will stand - maybe tomorrow.  Eyes were on Heywood and Middleton, Hartlepool or Bootle, although the Telegraph reported it will be Boston and Skegness.  This will be his sixth attempt to get into the Commons, close behind Farage's seven failures?
I was informed at the end of the day that candidates are already selected for Heywood and Middleton and Hartlepool, so... Nuttall is going to Hartlepool on Saturday to do what?


He fended off questions about Anne Marie Waters, the UKIP candidate and Pegida activist who's praised Wilders and le Pen and called Islam "evil".  Her case would be dealt with at an NEC meeting on Saturday.

Nuttall insists on calling Dame Louise Casey "Dame Casey", and has little time for Welsh ex-leader Nathan Gill who's been reported as saying UKIP has more ex-members than members.  I'm sure they all have fascinating thoughts on the EU council's reassurances on Northern Ireland's incorporation into the EU (IFF there are affirmative votes in both parts of the Ireland, AND a lot of other work).


Today's new saboteurs

After yesterday's huge addition of the whole EU27 to the list of those lining up to oppose the strong and stable leadership project, today didn't look promising at first.  But then they started to creep out of the woodwork.

  • Boris Johnson - maybe he can be trusted to read a speech to the security council, but the ME campaign can only take him very sparingly.
  • the Annals of Oncology, for ripping the Cancer Drugs Fund apart (it was Cameron's baby, so ME can fend off the blame, but she did go along with it for years)
  • the Public Accounts Committee, for accusing the government of lack of ambition on housing and homelessness
  • the National Association of Headteachers - 72 per cent of heads say their budgets will be untenable by 2019/20, and 18 per cent of school leaders say they are already in deficit.
  • new work by the IFS which shows that benefit cuts will continue to hit


Nitty gritty

A small point of vocabulary:  You don't "stand as an MP", even if you were elected to the parliament soon to end.  There will be no MPs from next Wednesday.  You stand as a candidate.

The Green and Women's Equality parties have reached an electoral pact.  Greens will have a fre-er run in Brighton Pavilion, Bristol West, Bath, Isle of Wight and Sheffield;  Women's Equality will have a fre-er run against Philip Davies (Conservative, Shipley, majority 9624)

Some might be surprised that David Mackintosh (Conservative, Northampton South, majority 3793) is not standing again.  Others, who know the ins and outs of an "unperforming" loan the borough council made while he was its leader might be less so.

(To keep track of incumbents' decisions to stand or not look here.)

Theresa ME's control freakery persists:


Good news for any Tories who still take any notice of polls:  YouGov on Scottish voting intentions: SNP 41% (-9), Conservative 28% (+13), Lab 18% (-6), LibDem 7% (-1).  This could leave the Commons seats as follows:  SNP 47 (-9), Conservative 8 (+7), Labour 1 (-), LibDem 3 (+2).



Register to vote


Registrations to vote spiked at the announcement of the general election, especially among younger voters.  It's important that as many as possible do it now - don't wait for the deadline of 22 May. 


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