Brexit, a long and arduous birth

As Brexit negotiations emerge blinking and squalling from their nine-month gestation, stories of demands and preparations by companies and other institutions keep coming.  Here are a few from the last week.

Catastrophe looms at ports after Brexit, shipping industry warns

The Guardian reports "The UK is facing an 'absolute catastrophe' if it does not sort out a 'frictionless and seamless' border at Dover and other ports, the shipping industry has warned" and explains the disruption which could occur in UK and other ports if Theresa May's promised "deep and special relationship" doesn't turn out right.  Software and other systems would need major changes to handle the customs checks which result from anything but the perfect deal.

Then we see what the rest of the world thinks of us.

Brexit bites as the UK falls from first to fifth place as the preferred FDI destination, according to a KPMG survey. pic.twitter.com/Q7I1NkpnIY

— UK News (@UK__News) April 12, 2017

As ever, the picture is more nuanced than a tweet or headline, but the story is that Brexit has reduced the UK's attractiveness to external investors.

Transferwise boss warns fintech startups against Brexit Britain

The report begins "At a government-backed conference designed to trumpet the UK as a post-Brexit fintech powerhouse, the CEO of Transferwise went off-message, suggesting startups should avoid London and confirming that his own firm will move its European headquarters to the mainland". Though Transferwise countered:

@JolyonMaugham @iainmartin1 @KevinCoates Our global hq is in london and stays in London; without passporting, we need to get a license in another EU country and set up there too

— taavet hinrikus (@taavet) April 12, 2017

London and the UK still have their attractions, but licensing and regulation will require at least some functions - and some companies - to be located elsewhere.  This is a widespread concern in financial businesses, with contingency plans beginning to turn into action (Lloyds TSB is now setting up an HQ in Berlin).

And, back to shipping and ports...

Shipping: Where a hard Brexit is not an option  

“They had better let us know soon,” says Guy Platten, the chief executive of the UK Chamber of Shipping, because ports like Dover, Holyhead and Zeebrugge just aren't ready for extra complexity to be added to an export-import system which has been built in a single market.

Beyond the policy vacuum?

We now have opening statements on negotiating positions from the UK government, the EU council and the EU parliament.  Michel Barnier, chief negotiator for the EU commission, will get his mandate at the end of April (rather unbelievably, a few days before the new French president is elected).  But for everybody whose lives and businesses depend on our EU relationship this still feels like a policy vacuum. There is no indication of the upheaval to come (or, of course, the sweetness, light and sunlit uplands predicted by keepers of the Brexit faith).

Every sector, every company, every institution  is coming up with its own worst case scenario and its own special demands.  Nissan, to pluck a name out of the air, will know what they were promised all those months ago, and their view of its value and limitations will be at least as good as that of the ministers who made the promise. Hundreds of companies and organisations have been consulted, though the word is that "negativity" was frowned on.

Nothing can be known for certain until the end of the negotiations, until the ink is wet on however many agreements there are in the end, and producing software, building port offices, setting up operations in another country, passing a #GreatCopyAndPasteBill can't all be done over the weekend before the grand signing.

This isn't going to stop.