Wednesday, 26 April 2017

The "It's not all about Brexit, honest" election - day 8


I woke up to this judgement.



Before we forget, many of us have local elections next week.  A Political Studies Association briefing this morning brought out the main points.  This is based on work by Rallings and Thrasher from Plymouth University, who have something of a reputation in this area, and John Curtice at Strathclyde University.

Labour is heading for a kicking in Wales, with 100 fewer seats and control of Cardiff, Swansea, Newport lost.  Also a disaster in Scotland, losing control of all the councils it currently controls.

SNP is generally up for the locals.

The Tories are up in Scotland, can expect 50 gains in Wales and 115 gains in English county, unitary and metropolitan council areas.

The LibDems should expect 85 gains in England and some gains in Wales.

Plaid should manage some gains from Labour.




Iain Conn of Centrica was concerned by May's proposed cap on energy prices (and more by his share price falling by 3.5% no doubt).  The language was similar to that used in response to the freeze/cap Ed Miliband proposed in 2015, though the accusation that a Tory government "doesn't believe in free markets" was something new.

Diane James, (no longer UKIP and now not Tory either?) told May & co off in similar terms - too much meddling in markets.



Keir Starmer's much trumpeted Brexit speech is in the Labour press pages.

His initial thrust was that Labout would use a more cooperative tone in negotiations, which would certainly be an improvement on the Tories' repeated but unconvincing insistence that the EU27 are our "friends and partners" (especially as that's often accompanied by an "if they know what's good for them" connotation).

Labour would not start by taking half the potential options off the table (May would start low and hope to build up, while Starmer wants to start high and work down where necessary) and No Deal would be the worst possible deal (I'd add that no deal on trade might be bad, but no deal on Brexit would be disastrous).

Starmer positioned his "smart, flexible" approach against the Tories' "rigid, reckless" one.  He characterised May's approach as "Out, out, out, and we don’t want anything to do with the single market, we don’t want anything to do with the customs union, we don’t want anything to do with the European court, we don’t want anything to do with the European agencies, and we are going to pretend that no deal is a reasonable or good deal" and claimed that it had not gone down well in the EU countries he had visited.

EU expats in the UK would have their rights guaranteed unconditionally from day 1, and Starmer maintained this was the "right thing to do" in the face of suggestions that Leavers would see an offer of full recognition of EU ex-pats' rights as something for nothing.


The Labour emphasis would be on jobs and the economy, though freedom of movement would have to change.  Labour would tear up May's Brexit white paper and recast the #GreatCopyAndPasteBill as an "EU rights and protection bill".

Starmer said that Labour would ensure that Britain does not just implement existing EU laws guaranteeing worker rights and environmental standards, but future ones too. This marks a key dividing line with the Conservatives, and it would help a Labour government negotiate a deal guaranteeing good access to the single market, because the EU would not have to worry about the UK cutting standards post Brexit to make its economy more competitive.

Just leaving after two years, with inadequate agreements on customs arrangements or criminal justice information sharing (plus membership or proper links with key EU agencies such as Euratom, EMA, Europol and Eurojust) would be unthinkable, so transition might mean not fully leaving until around 2022.
 
Repatriated powers would go to the devolved assemblies and regional government - something the Tories are terrified of guaranteeing.

But there would be no second referendum, no EEA option, and no guarantee that parliament would have the option of rejecting a bad deal and retaining the status quo.

This was one of the more positive immediate responses.
Barry Gardiner was out with the same brief for Labour, but his vocabulary was "nice Labour" rather than "nationalistic Tory", tough in negotiation, but starting from a cooperative position.  Susanna Reid on ITV observed that his tablet still carries an "I'm In" sticker.

Image: ITV, via Daily Mirror


Various Tories, throughout the day, labelled Starmer's Brexit negotiation scheme nonsensical and incoherent.  We must be able to back out, they said, opt for No Deal rather than a bad deal.  Offering rights for EU expats unconditionally is dangerous - something for nothing (didn't they once deny that expats are bargaining chips?).  And of course Corbyn is so bad we couldn't trust him with the negotiations.

This was simply repeated by the media, with no analysis, as if May's approach is generally accepted as a pearl of clarity and precision.  Yet her Lancaster House speech was widely criticised as saying very little about the actual negotiating position, and the white paper received several negative reviews when it finally came (after the Article 50 had begun its progress through the Commons).

Professor Steve Peers called the white paper "basically content-free" in his analysis for EU Law Analysis.



Whichever intern stayed up until the early hours to complete it made howlers such as the following presentation of leave entitlements.


But it's not today's document, so the media seem to assume that the government simply has an established position which must be OK.

On the subject of expats' rights, Faisal Islam of Sky points out that the Tories' position takes some interpreting (thread)
Tim Farron for the LibDems didn't think much of Starmer's prescription either, pointing out that it accepts non-membership of the single market and doesn't offer a second referendum, and wondering why Labour didn't press harder on all these issues when they were whipped to pass the Article 50 bill through Parliament.

Paul Nuttall's analysis was that Mrs May intends to fudge exit so we leave in name but not in reality; Labour’s plan is to not even pretend to have left.




UKIP was still fending off criticism of yesterday's "integration agenda".  From their own side, Arron Banks labelled parts of it a "war on Muslim religion" and James Carver MEP has resigned as UKIP's foreign and commonwealth affairs spokesperson on the same issue, supported by several other MEPs, who say

“I consider the policies to be authoritarian, grossly insensitive and targeting one particular group within society to the point of persecution.
“It’s vile and it’s not something that I can possibly defend. I’m not alone in that feeling...
"At least half a dozen MEPs are considering withdrawing support from the leadership of the party and across the country. There’s a groundswell of unhappiness."

One MEP said there would be “some settling of accounts” after the 8 June vote, adding: “This is all tarnishing us."

From the Muslim Council of Britain, Harun Kahn hoped instead for unbigoted leadership to unite the country.  But UKIP deputy leader Peter Whittle prayed in aid the "biggest party in the EU", by which he means the centre-right party group the Europeans People's Party.  The EPP has adopted a resolution which "supports" an EU-wide ban on "Islamic face veils" but acknowledges that such a ban would not be within current EU competencies.


A copy of Labour's election script has leaked, with an attack line that Tories are for "the privileged few" and Labour is "for the many not the few".  Contrast that if you can with May's pledge to produce a "country that works for everyone, not just the privileged few" - the poverty of sloganising.




Theresa May went to south Wales.  The Monday poll giving Tories a 10-point lead over Labour in Wales was surely a coincidence.  She visited the mandatory factory, then on deepest, darkest Bridgend to talk to a nest of nice, safe people.

The stump speech, which we're all going to be bored with, then angered by, can be summarised easily.  Lynton Crosby can do this stuff with his eyes closed.

Abandon tribal attachments

Strong and stable leadership to form strong and stable government to produce a strong country, with a plan, a country for everyone not just the privileged few

The Conservative party was, is, and will be the party of lower taxes.
This is the most important election in MY lifetime.

Every single vote counts.  Every single vote FOR ME and for conservative candidates will strengthen MY hand in Brexit negotiations.

Give ME a mandate to lead Britain.  Give ME a mandate to speak for Britain.  Give ME a mandate to fight for Britain.  Give ME a mandate to deliver for Britain.

Why do interviewers bother with detailed questions?  The May-Crosby machine will deliver the same, horrendous boilerplate until half the country feels it's been trepanned to within an inch of its life and goes out to vote Conservative to make it STOP.



I really tried to ignore this one, but too many people kept throwing it at me.  Perhaps she's still a bit human.

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