It's not all about us

In a cosy little chat with John Humphrys on yesterday's Today programme (the 8:10 interview), David Davis told us that the EU doesn't want to end up with a No Deal Brexit. He said it quite forcefully too: "Europe does not want no deal, I promise you. They do not want no deal. That's the thing to understand". I'd venture to suggest that "Europe" realizes how damaging No Deal would be, and that many on the Brexit side simply don't, or refuse to admit it for ideological reasons.

Do May & co really believe they have to retain the option of walking out of the negotiations, or are they playing a game theory game about game theory with their own side?

Walking out and retaining the status quo is often considered an acceptable negotiating tactic. Walking out and losing little more than time might well be an acceptable negotiating tactic. Walking out of the Brexit talks offers neither of those results and, depending on exactly when you did it, would be more or less disastrous.

By October, Davis said, he would have "the withdrawal agreement complete, and with it the substance of our future partnership". At least he's now recognising that there won't be a trade agreement. Unsurprisingly, with the debates on Lords amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill coming later yesterday, much of the interview concerned what would happen if the UK Parliament rejects whatever withdrawal agreement he comes back with. I'm going to keep this one simple, and not rehearse the arguments around various kinds of meaningful vote. Yet. Because there's a different question which is at least as important.

Negotiating with ourselves

Another of Davis's jovial observations was "The prime minister and I are both surprised when we talk to foreign leaders... the extent to which they read all the British newspapers avidly, and even more surprising they believe them all, or at least they appear to". Is that a lie or simply evidence that we are in the hands of idiots? How could they not expect our "friends and partners", as they still call the EU27 less and less believably, not to keep themselves informed of opinion in this country, not to keep track of what (little) the government is telling the British people and what lies and unpleasantness are being spread by other sources? And, conversely, is he telling us that the British government and its negotiators don't do the same with the 27's media? Are we led by liars or idiots?

It certainly seems that they don't want us to be worrying our pretty little heads about what's happening "over there", because they never mention that the British parliament is not the only body which can reject a Brexit withdrawal agreement. If a deal is agreed between the UK government and the other 27 heads of government in the EU Council it goes to the Commons for more or less inadequate debate and decision. But it also goes to the EU parliament, and they could reject it too. May & co don't want our representatives in the Commons to have the power to send her back to get something better but MEPs, including our own MEPs, including Nigel Farage, already have that power. And so might other parliaments.

Considering this question, I find that "any deep(er) and more comprehensive free trade agreement is likely to cover areas of national (as opposed to EU Commission) competence and would then require approval by all EU national parliaments". The EU-Singapore FTA was submitted to the EU Court of Justice for a decision on this issue. The Brexit negotiations are being carried out under "an exceptional horizontal competence to cover in this agreement all matters necessary to arrange the withdrawal". And yet if the withdrawal agreement does cover, or is accompanied by other agreements which cover, the security and law enforcement areas Davis is talking about for example, might the question of competence not be raised again?

(Incidentally, I notice from the Sussex University document quoted in the previous paragraph that "if the UK signs an FTA with the EU that includes mutual recognition of standards and conformity assessment in certain sectors, it could not then sign deep free trade agreements with third countries affecting these sectors, except where the EU chose to do so also".)

A No Deal Brexit might not, therefore, be the decision of anybody in the UK. Two to tango and all that.