No, this is not "Leave voters didn't know what they were voting for". This is asking who May has behind her in the Brexit she's trying to construct. Media attention this weekend is on whether the Tory soft-Brexiters and the headbangers are reconciled by May's 45 minutes at a Mansion House lectern, but should the concern not be for the preferences of "the British people", to coin a phrase?
Six weeks ago, George Osborne's London Evening Standard quoted a poll for "website Left Foot Forward" which found 60% support for remaining in the single market and 57% support for the customs union. Even 44% of those who voted Leave in 2016 supported single market membership. The actual numbers are on the BMG website.
And yet, to quote May's speech, "We are leaving the single market".
This is far from the only recent poll which gives a similar picture. When the question reminds respondents that the single market includes free movement the score goes down; when they're offered some form of reform of free movement the single market is more popular, but membership of the EU's internal market is still there as an option.
Tom Newton Dunn claimed on Radio 4's Week in Westminster on Saturday that the subject of the customs union wasn't mentioned in the 2016 campaign, at which Jacob Rees Mogg protested that we obviously hadn't been listening to his speeches. Clearly not.
Later that year Liam Fox told Andrew Marr that the customs union was still being considered: "The UK may seek a compromise deal to remain in the EU customs union... the cabinet would 'take a collective view on this once we have looked at all the issues'". January's BMG figures suggest that people are willing to consider it.
And yet, to quote May's speech: "The UK has been clear it is leaving the Customs Union".
But everybody knew that voting Leave meant leaving the single market!
Not those who wanted an EEA Brexit.
And everybody knew we'd be leaving the customs union!
Perhaps not the majority who missed those Rees Mogg speeches.
But Cameron told us!
This from those who didn't believe another word the then prime minister uttered.
Two weeks after the referendum vote in 2016, Comres ran a poll on what people expected to happen. David Cameron had resigned and we had no prime minister; the Tory leadership election was well under way but Andrea Leadsom had still to drop out of the contest. People were asked who they trusted to "carry out the will of the British people" and answered:
A few questions later they were asked what kind of new deal they expected. Looking just at the single market (the customs union wasn't considered in this poll)...
As you can see, fewer than 30% expected to leave the single market (35% of Leave voters).
Chris Grey's two sentences before the one I opened with are: "The most depressing aspect of it, as with the Florence speech, was the sub-text that it would be better for Britain not to leave the EU at all or, at least, to do so whilst staying within the EEA. It is a terrible, tragic failure of political leadership that a British PM is enacting a policy which is not only harmful to Britain but which she clearly realises is harmful to Britain."
So, come together? We haven't gone anywhere.
