Unicorns all the way - Is May lying to herself?

On Wednesday 25 October, at prime minister's questions, Theresa May fell in behind her Brexit secretary and repeated the deluded mantra that she would achieve a trade deal with the EU to be signed the moment after Brexit. Yet the previous Sunday she was reported to have put off discussions of a trade deal in her cabinet until some time in 2018, after the EU have "stated their terms". As an unidentified minister supposedly told the Sun's Tom Newton-Dunn, "Theresa’s fear is the moment we do, half of us walk out. We just don’t know which half will yet". But the EU won't "state their terms" any more than they already have, since Article 50 is not concerned with trade, and Barnier will only ever be allowed to negotiate under the terms of Article 50.

An hour or so after PMQs Ivan Rogers, the UK's Permanent Representative to the EU until the beginning of this year, told the treasury select committee that May's red lines put us too far out of the EU to get anything more than a DCTA (deep and comprehensive trade agreement) like Canada's. He (and other contributors) also reminded us, though who but the cabinet needs reminding, that the talks May hopes will start after the December EU Council summit are not trade talks.

A few of Rogers' words, from the transcript of the meeting, tell us in no uncertain terms, "I stand by every word of what I said, and I used to say it when I was in Government, and it also what I hear in every capital now and from Brussels and Strasbourg now.  What we are talking about going into the new year are not trade talks; they are talks about the future partnership and the framework for that future partnership, and that is what is specified in Article 50.  Those are not trade talks.  I can understand why the press keeps on talking about them as trade talks.  Obviously they get into the whole structure, ambit and scope of the future relationship, which goes to trade, but the trade talks will only begin after we have left the European Union".

Which of course is the way the EU sees it. Here is paragraph 5 of their negotiating guidelines: "While an agreement on a future relationship between the Union and the United Kingdom as such can only be finalised and concluded once the United Kingdom has become a third country, Article 50 TEU [Treaty on European Union] requires to take account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union in the arrangements for withdrawal. To this end, an overall understanding on the framework for the future relationship should be identified during a second phase of the negotiations under Article 50 TEU. We stand ready to engage in preliminary and preparatory discussions to this end in the context of negotiations under Article 50 TEU, as soon as the European Council decides that sufficient progress has been made in the first phase towards reaching a satisfactory agreement on the arrangements for an orderly withdrawal".

And as the Guardian reported on Tuesday 24 October, "Barnier said he could envision a short transition period being agreed between the EU and the UK before March 2019 to ease the UK’s exit from the bloc, but it would require the British government accepting the continuation of EU law and the jurisdiction of the European court of justice. A future trade deal, however, would have to be negotiated over “several years” and “will be very different” from the status quo, Barnier told a group of European newspapers".

The whole evidence session can be viewed on the parliamentary website. You will also hear Rogers try to explain that No Deal doesn't actually mean no deal, because the country would collapse without "mini" deals on specific sectors. And Professor Catherine Barnard (Professor of EU Law, University of Cambridge) points out that many of our current arrangements with the EU - the EHIC (European Health Insurance Card) for example - depend on reciprocity, which can't be enforced by a piece of UK law like the EU withdrawal bill.

One of the most stunning pieces of evidence for me, though, is that 80% of Ireland's exports go either to the UK or through the UK by truck. Ireland is our hostage.