Brexit Day (No 3) +27 - The "revoke the past; sod that, revoke the present" election

Little Matty Hancock - he does like a selfie

History, according to the New Book Of Tory, consists of various "Labour years of disaster" and the last 126 days. Little Matty Hancock came onto the Today programme on Saturday with a shiny new announcement on dementia research to distract us from the Labour manifesto. The figure of £1.6 billion was mentioned, but that's for Research! generally. The actual proposal is £83 million over ten years to fund a "dementia moonshot", a national effort, with scientists invited in from all over the world (even if they earn less than £32,000 a year).

Justin Webb asked him, "Do you have a sense that, included in this announcement is an acceptance that there has not been a proper spend up to now?" and Hancock went into a long explanation that the problem of dementia was actually "partly as a consequence of success in dealing with cancer and cardio-vascular diseases". He has a point, since the incidence of dementia rises with age, but he was rather too proud that "we've seen the fastest acceleration in survival of cancer of all the major European countries", because we started from a lower point than comparable countries and have been trying to catch up.

Webb tried to return to the question, and this is where things got silly. "Here's the problem though, with all of that, and talk of moonshots, and you heard it with the audience last night [the Question Time leaders' debate], the scepticism that there was towards Boris Johnson, this business of making promises. They know, and everyone in that audience knows, that the NHS has been underfunded in historic terms over the last decade. They know as well that our spending on research and development is less than the OECD average, has been for many years. They know that these things could have been done in the past and weren't, and they just don't believe you."

Little Matty protested, "Oh I don't think that's reasonable at all", but Webb persisted, "Most of those things are true, aren't they [all of them, surely]?". Hancock then started to paint a new history: "No. Boris Johnson has been prime minister for a hundred and twenty days. I've been health secretary for 15 months...". And now it was Webb's turn to protest (I simplify slightly, there was a lot of talking over each other): "Is that really credible? 'It wasn't us. It was other Conservatives...'?".

"It's called renewal," Hancock replied. "You renew in office, and if you're saying that anybody who has been in a party that's been in government can't come up with new ideas, that's for the birds." Nobody said that, of course, but let's leave them to it for a while.

JW: Did you support the levels of NHS spending that there were for the last decade?

LMH: Yes, it's gone up every single year, in fact...

JW: By well under the long term average, isn't it?

LMH: Hold on, the only year that NHS funding has been significantly cut in real terms [he said "times" but let's be kind] was in 1976, the last time a Labour government...

JW: You're avoiding the point that I'm making...

LMH: I'm not...
.

JW: You know perfectly well that it's been less than the long term average for the last decade, and people know that ...

LMH: And in the future Justin... elections are about what we're going to do next and what we're going to do is we're now clearly the only party that can move past the Brexit status [I think he meant stasis] that has got politics stuck for the last few years, and then we're going to put the longest and largest cash injection into the NHS, and including doubling the research budget, so on this point on dementia..." and he went on to a story about his grandmother, which I don't want to belittle, but it is a standard way to hold the stage uninterrupted.

Believe a little more, and TinkerBrexit will live!

There you have it. We should ignore what has gone before, forget the mistakes and bad decisions of previous Conservatives (which included these Conservatives of course, but under a different flag) and look to the future. I fully expected him to demand that we believe a bit more.

Friday night's Question Time leaders special drew the same kind of argument from Hancock's boss. The audience began with a question about telling the truth, greeted with laughter (which somehow disappeared in the clip prepared for the BBC news bulletins). "I think the issue of trust in politics is central to this election", said the improbable prime minister, and the problem of course, was the "failure of politicians to deliver Brexit". "Why do you think you're being asked that question?" asked Fiona Bruce, but we didn't hear an answer.

What he did say was, "I didn't want to have an election... We had to do it because Parliament is blocking Brexit". To her credit, Bruce pulled him up - they voted  for second reading, but were unwilling to let him force it through with no proper consideration, but he was in full flow. "They were given every opportunity to pass it...". To which I can only say "bollocks".

When asked about poverty by a teacher... "I want you to know that I've been in office for 120 days or so, as prime minister, and I do understand. I've been to many hospitals, many schools in the time that I've been prime minister, and I've talked to nurses and doctors, and teachers about what's going on in their schools, and that's why we're now levelling up funding for education across...." And of course he has no knowledge of, and no responsibility for, what his own government did before.

Other Tory automata have come out with the same line, including Nicky Morgan, who's not even standing this time, on Wednesday morning. The manifesto tells us "With a new Parliament and a sensible majority Government, we can get that deal through in days. It is oven-ready - and every single Conservative candidate at this election, all 635 of them, have pledged to vote for this deal as soon as Parliament returns". A pledge signed in blood, no doubt.

****

I've been told off for suggesting this, but Labour are doing something rather similar. When was the last time you heard a Labour spokesperson even mention the achievements of the last Labour government, which ended - I know it's hard to admit it - less than ten years ago? I'm very ready to be corrected, but the only things of that sort I can remember Corbyn applauding are the Good Friday Agreement, the Human Rights Act and the Equality and Human Rights Commission "which we set up".

Richard Burgon, who could be Secretary of State for the Justice Department in 16 days, but is told off by lawyers for casual use of the word "robbery", was explicit on Wednesday's Today. Nick Robinson reminded him that Labour had been in power for many of the years during which the WASPI women were not warned about their impending change of pension terms, and he told us straight: "Labour is under new management now". Not quite Year Zero - I haven't received my booking card for a session at a holiday camp in Xinjiang yet - but plain enough.

There is no time

One of the gems associated with the UK House of Commons is @PARLYapp, a "journalism project that focuses on the UK Parliament and the Westminster village" as they say, and which reports the business of the day in plain English on Twitter. Up it popped on Monday with the news that "If the government is returned a Queen’s Speech with reduced ceremonial will be held on Thursday 19th December," and "In any other scenario such as a hung parliament or a Labour victory, the Queen’s Speech will be in January". As the duty PARLYapper explained, "'reduced ceremonial' likely means the 2017 version of the [Queen's speech] - Queen in a day dress, arrives in a car rather than in a carriage. (EU hat TBC)".

Other timings: 19 December is also the beginning of the Christmas recess, whoever is elected, unless the new prime minister really wants to get people's backs up. When Her Maj goes off to Sandringham to hang up her EU hat for another year we can't quite be sure yet. Since Parliament only meets after the election on 17 December, and nothing much can happen until all the MPs are sworn in, nothing will happen before Christmas, despite Johnson's manifesto pledge: "If we elect a majority of Conservative MPs to Parliament, we will start putting our deal through Parliament before Christmas and we will leave the European Union in January".

Again, unless the new prime minister wants to annoy everybody, nothing else will happen until 6 January, by which time Johnson will have been prime minister for 166 days, and parliament will have been sitting for 34 of them. Somehow our hard-working, accessible prime minister has managed to fit three PMQs into that, but Donald Tusk's words "Do not waste this time" do come to mind.

****

Thanks for the title and theme of this post to my Twitter sparring partner RicoS90.

Brexit Day (no 3) +11 - the "can this bunch really be serious" election

Iain Duncan Smith celebrating
announcement of the "national living wage"

The minimum wage has not been a big election issue so far, though Labour and the Conservatives have both made a pitch. But today came the announcement of new Living Wage rates. (For the purposes of this piece, and indeed for anything else I write, George Osborne's "national living wage" is the minimum wage rate for over-25s).

The current rates are therefore:

• Living Wage: £9.30 per hour (£10.75 in London)
• minimum wage 25+: £8.21
• 21+: £7.70
• 18+: £6.15
• 16+: £4.35
• apprentice: £3.90

Sajid Javid's proposal came at the Conservative conference in October - the minimum wage for the top band would rise to £10.50 by 2024, and the age for receiving this rate would fall to 21 by the same date. We haven't seen the 2019 manifesto yet, but what have the Tories said at previous elections?

• 2010: "we will keep the minimum wage"
• 2015: "take everyone earning less than £12,500 out of Income Tax altogether and pass a law to ensure we have a Tax-Free Minimum Wage in this country... the National Minimum Wage should rise to £6.70 this autumn, on course for a Minimum Wage that will be over £8 by the end of the decade... nobody working 30 hours on the Minimum Wage [should pay] Income Tax on what they earn"
• 2017: "A new Conservative government will continue to increase the National Living Wage to 60 per cent of median earnings by 2020 and then by the rate [of increase] of median earnings"

The Labour offer has come from John McDonnell - the minimum rate for all workers would be £10 per hour "immediately", then rise with living costs [not earnings?] so that "everybody over 16 years of age will be earning comfortably more than £10.50 an hour by 2024". And in previous years?

• 2010: "We will end for good the concept of a life on benefit by offering all those unemployed for more than two years work they must accept, and we will make work pay better with the goal of a minimum wage rising at least in line with average earnings and... a new £40-a-week Better Off in Work guarantee [and] the Low Pay Commission’s remit will have the goal of the National Minimum Wage rising at least in line with average earnings over the period to 2015"
• 2015: "raising the National Minimum Wage to more than £8 an hour by October 2019"
• 2017: "raise the Minimum Wage to the level of the Living Wage (expected to be at least £10 per hour by 2020) – for all workers aged 18 or over"

****

Even Brexit Party Ltd promise they'll announce a full set of policies and present them in a "contract with the people" rather than a manifesto (though how such a contract could be enforced any better than a manifesto I have yet to hear) but we know what they want. The SNP, Lib Dems and others are making it primarily a Brexit election, along with Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" party and Corbyn's "Get Brexit Sorted" party, but  most of the time it's hard to work out what anybody's actually planning. Just waiting for the results... but (where have I heard this before?) they'll have very little time to do anything in Parliament by the time the election's done with.

One trade specialist is wondering: "Both Labour and Conservative are committing to completing a fundamental negotiation with our main trading partner next year. Yet in this election campaign so far dominated by triviality we have little idea of what they'll negotiate".

Emily Thornberry inspiring her colleagues

In interviews today, Emily Thornberry did outline what Labour has in mind and, as I said a few days ago, I find it hard to believe. "We want to be able to negotiate the sort of deal that we have been talking to the Europeans about for more than three years," she told us. "It is being in a customs union, in a single market, in a close alignment of rules and regulations." That menu surely can't be done under the EU27's current negotiating mandate - one of the Barnier mantras throughout has been that a permanent relationship can't be agreed under Article 50.

And yesterday Labour's campaign coordinator Andrew Gwynne told Andrew Marr that Labour would seek to strike "reciprocal agreements with the EU27 that allow British citizens to enjoy some of the freedoms that they will lose as a result of Brexit”, with Thornberry supplying further detail: "if a Labour government left the EU, the post-departure immigration policy would include controls on EU nationals, although those already in the UK would face no restrictions". All in three months? This means major amendment to the existing withdrawal agreement, which is all Barnier is allowed to negotiate, and - again - couldn't be done under Article 50.

****

Today's main performance came from Brexit Party Ltd. At a campaign launch in Hartlepool, Richard Tice's newly adopted constituency, Farage told the world he'd been thinking (after complaints and even resignations by many of his - still - potential candidates arguing that putting up 600 candidates was daft), and he'd decided that they really shouldn't stand in seats which were won by Conservatives in 2017.

Having concluded, after careful study, that the new proposed withdrawal agreement "is not Brexit" and must be opposed across the country (except Northern Ireland), the proprietor saw a single tweet which converted him to this new strategy. Johnson spoke to him, and he was enlightened. We can get a "a free trade agreement on the model of a super Canada plus arrangement..." was the message. "... not based on any kind of political alignment... a fantastic new free trade agreement with the EU by the end of 2020. And we will not extend the transition period...".

And that did it for him. Such clarity of thought! I haven't come across anybody serious who thinks this is remotely possible, and the Tory-Brexity insistence that this mess is all about trade - in goods, not even services - and not also about the many other sorts of cooperation that this kind of Brexit would throw away (and which would certainly change that "plus"into a "minus") still doesn't seem to concern anybody much in the media.

I've seen an extreme Brexiter tonight on Twitter who was fully in agreement with Farage yesterday, and is now fully in agreement with new-Farage. It's easy!

Until the next rethink.

Brexit Day (no 3) + 6 - the "apologise, just in case" election

James Cleverly observing Ken Clarke

for tips on debating skills 

The "getting Brexit done" party

We began the day with James Cleverly touring the studios, apologising for everything the ruling party did yesterday:

• an insouciant toff belittling the good sense of Grenfell victims (Cleverly didn't bother with Andrew Bridgen's apology for apologising for Jacob Rees Mogg)
• a cabinet minister apparently withholding relevant information about the suitability of a Conservative candidate for the Welsh Assembly, to whom a judge had said: "Are you completely stupid? You have managed single-handed, and I have no doubt it was deliberate on your part, to sabotage this trial… get out of my court". (This later led to Little Alun Cairns resigning as Welsh Secretary, but even then, in an otherwise quite reasonable interview, Stephen Crabb MP regretted the leak of the email which suggested that Cairns had lied and which made him resign. 
• a doctored video (lots of people do it, but they tend to be satirists) and Cleverly then had a different excuse for each interview he did (we had to shorten it, it was satirical, we put them both out, which Nick Robinson pinned him down on - guess which version got all the shares)
• various Conservative candidates being unpleasant at various times
• did he even mention Johnson's tabloid-Telegraph front page about affluent peasants?

This Sky News video itself turned out to have been unfair, since Cleverly's tour of the studios had taken him to Julia Hartley Brewer at Talk Radio when Kay Burley thought he was coming to Sky News, but it's an excellent account of the the things Cleverly should have been apologising for:

“And yet we have an empty chair”

Pretty devastating rundown of Tory blunders by @KayBurley while party chairman James Cleverly is 15ft away and refusing to come on air

pic.twitter.com/JIpGmmBBPY

— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) November 6, 2019

Then, around lunchtime, Johnson took his convoy of cars and security vans off to Buckingham Palace to tell the queen the speech she made just 23 days ago is officially useless, and she'd be making another one, probably just after Christmas, and he couldn't be sure it wouldn't be his again.

"You're not very good at this, are you?" she might have thought, but not said.

Then he returned to Downing St to make another election campaigning speech. He started by claiming that he really didn't want an election, but election campaigning is what he's spent far more of his time doing in the three and a bit months since he was appointed than negotiating with the EU, let alone attending the Commons.

At least he used the plain lectern, with no crest, so he wasn't claiming it was a state announcement this time.

Fact checkers have been tearing into Johnson's material for weeks - the 40 hospitals that might be six, the 20,000 police officers who might almost replace the ones we've lost since 2010, the free ports we had until 2012, and which exist in many other EU countries, but which have apparently always been forbidden by the EU - but he keeps churning it out.

Because fact checkers don't reach a large audience unless they're on the media people watch, listen or engage with, and unless they call things out in real time.

For a good look under one of these headline numbers you need go no further than a powerful tweet by a former Chief Prosecutor of North West England, which outlines the damage which the pledge on police funding don't even pretend to undo.

There's an election on then

Suspend your disbelief as you enter here. We're saying there's a Conservative government of some kind after 12 December, and that "Brexit happens" on 31 January next year.

We keep hearing that Johnson pretends he can negotiate everything he needs from the EU by the end of 2020. This means he doesn't intend to use the option of more transition time which his withdrawal agreement has inherited from its very close cousin, the one May left us when she resigned.

The transition period (so called because it would be a transition to an unknown destination) is usually known by Conservatives as the implementation period (so called because there would be nothing to implement), and was originally nearly two years - 21 months - with the option to go on for another two years - 45 months. With extension to 31 October it was 14 months extendable to 38, and  Johnson's new deadline of 31 January makes it 11 months extendable to 35.

The only number Johnson wants us to look at is eleven - February 2020 to December 2020. Let's assume that the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to actually implement Brexit ("coming back with a deal" is just the beginning) gets through Parliament, with some of its excesses (allowing ministers to do pretty much whatever they like) trimmed back and some of the glaring omissions (too little on how the new arrangements for Northern Ireland would be put together) filled in, the transition might start.

Referring to the Explanatory Notes for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (clause 31), the next thing to do in the UK is "the making by a Minister of the Crown of a statement on objectives for the future relationship with the EU", then not to proceed until "a Minister of the Crown has moved a motion on the statement on objectives for the future relationship with the EU in the House of Commons and the House of Commons has approved this motion and... a Minister of the Crown has moved a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the statement on objectives". The Commons has to vote for the objectives of the negotiation.

I'm oversimplifying massively here. Let's assume they can do it by the end of February.

That makes ten months.

Meet Phil Hogan, the new
EU trade commissioner

Let's also assume that the EU side can do their equivalent work (appointing negotiators - under the new Irish trade commissioner Phil Hogan - and agreeing a negotiating mandate without waiting for an EU Council meeting) in the same kind of time.

That gives Johnson (remember - disbelief still suspended) three or four months (up to 1 July, as specified in the Withdrawal Agreement) to decide whether he wants to carry on negotiating for the rest of the year before giving up, give up then and there, or request an extension past December 2020. He tells us he will not take the third option, which makes the most likely outcome a WTO-only relationship with the EU from the beginning of 2021 (though the Withdrawal Agreement, with its provisions for the Irish frontstop, citizens rights and a financial settlement of what would be around £19bn by then, would still be in operation and really annoying some Tories) .

And many other negotiations would have to be going on at the same time - to try not to lose too much of the police and justice cooperation we've built over the years, to try to construct some kind of associate membership of the regulatory structures we have again built over the last 40 years - for the aerospace, automotive, chemicals, food and drink and pharmaceutical industries. (This really is a ludicrously expensive way to reconstruct something not quite as good as what we have now.)

The timing is ridiculous. Johnson doesn't mean it.

Laura McAlpine with Jeremy Corbyn
at what I think is a different meeting

The "getting Brexit sorted" party

Corbyn chose Harlow yesterday for his Brexit speech. Harlow is currently the seat of Robert Halfon, promoter of "blue collar Conservatism". He was campaigning for free car parking at hospitals in 2017 and before, but didn't manage to convince his party, while Labour was campaigning on it in 2017. Labour's candidate for December is Laura McAlpine, who hosted the event, as is Labour's standard pattern.

Let's see what a "Labour Brexit" might be (these quotes are taken from the speech which was put out on the web, not as it was delivered).

"Labour’s plan will get Brexit sorted [not 'done'] so a Labour government can get on with delivering the real change Britain needs [not 'the people's priorities]."

"So an incoming Labour government will first secure a sensible deal. That will take no longer than three months because the deal will be based on terms we’ve already discussed with the EU, including a new customs union, a close single market relationship and guarantees of rights and protections... It’s a deal that will protect British manufacturing and respect the precious peace in Northern Ireland... And then we’ll put that deal to a public vote."

A few things here: Starmer and his people have certainly kept a line open to their counterparts in the EU negotiating team. As a responsible negotiator, Barnier would have kept in touch with a possible replacement government, but I'm not convinced his responsibilities would have allowed him to make any commitments. Yesterday, Starmer claimed that his Labour team and May's team had jointly talked to Barnier about the terms they'd been discussing in their cross-party talks. He claimed they'd been told it could be done in four to six weeks. I have trouble believing that.

Are Labour telling us that what they could put to a referendum would be a "finished Brexit"? More than a withdrawal agreement with a commitment to a customs union and close alignment to single market rules, which the EU were reluctantly willing to concede in the backstop? I don't believe it. Barnier would certainly talk to an alternative government. He wouldn't go outside his negotiating mandate, and the EU is going to agree - it can't - a future relationship under Article 50.

"So if you want to leave the EU without trashing our economy or selling out our NHS, you’ll be able to vote for it. If you want to remain in the EU, you’ll be able to vote for that. Either way, only a Labour government will put the final decision in your hands. Because this has involved the whole country from the start, it can’t now be left to politicians. To finally get this sorted and move forward we need the people to sign on the dotted line. And we will immediately carry out your decision, so Britain can get beyond Brexit."

Logically put. I hope Labour people will be asked to commit to the legislation for such a referendum making the decision legally binding, which the 2016 vote was not (what a prime minister says - "we will implement..." - isn't law).

"Boris Johnson staked his reputation on leaving the EU on 31st October 'do or die'. 'No ifs, no buts,' he said. So the failure to do so can only be his. The irony is, for all his boasting, Johnson’s sell-out deal STILL won’t get Brexit done. It will lead to years of continuing negotiations and uncertainty... The EU negotiator Michel Barnier has said an EU trade deal on Johnson’s terms would take 'three years, maybe more' of further negotiations... Whereas Labour’s plan will sort Brexit quickly, because whatever the final decision, we won’t be ripping up our main trading relationship."

That's a big claim. We know that Johnson isn't being honest about when Brexit might be "done", but what does Corbyn think he's saying here? Labour will get a deal within three months. Starting when? Given Christmas, let's be generous and assume he means the end of March. As I said above, that could surely only be a withdrawal agreement with a political declaration going for a close-ish relationship.

There'll be an EU Council in late March, and we should know soon what the EU Parliament calendar looks like. Assume they both say OK and the UK Parliament approves it (we're talking about a Labour government here, remember) it goes into a referendum campaign (for which the Labour government has already managed to pass an enabling law, and for which the electoral commission has agreed a question). We then need ten weeks... Just about doable.

Suspending a lot of disbelief (starting with the Labour government) that means that Labour's withdrawal agreement could be put to a vote at the end of June - assume the 25th. Then would come implementation...

Brexit Day (no 3) + 2 - The "stop bad things while people are watching" election

The Preston New Road site, visualised

At the top of the hour the news bulletin told us "The government has halted all fracking operations in England". Not that there are many. And it turned out to be not exactly a ban - "After reviewing the [Oil and Gas Authority] report into recent seismic activity at Preston New Road, it is clear that we cannot rule out future unacceptable impacts on the local community. For this reason, I have concluded that we should put a moratorium on fracking in England with immediate effect," said Industry Secretary Andrea Leadsom.

Asked about her decision by Mishal Husain on the Today programme, Leadsom used words of regret - "this a great opportunity for the UK" but didn't sound all that disappointed. Almost as if the moratorium wasn't designed to last very long. She volunteered "and we have acted on their report within a couple of days".

"In the run-up to an election," we might add.

Husain went on to ask about the Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) report on "the threat posed to this country by Russia", as Dominic Grieve put it on Thursday. Leadsom didn't seem to have any good answers on the subject, not even briefed answers. "I'm not aware that there is any hold up with that report" was an easy opening, then she descended quickly into generalities. "... at all times select committees make reports and the government prepares a response and there's nothing peculiar about the time that takes...".

The ISC is not a select committee. It's established under its own law, which specifies the selection of its members and their privileged access to secret information. Select committees publish their own reports, and government responses sometimes appear months later. Government certainly can't hold up publication of a select committee report. It can delay this one, precisely because it's different.

Grieve has told us about the seven months or more since his committee's report was completed, and that it's been vetted to death by spooks and civil servants. All it needs is the final OK from Downing St. They've had their ten days, and Johnson's mouthpieces can't tell us what's holding it up.

Leadsom told us several times that she knew nothing about this report, but she "wouldn't accept that it's been held up". Not an answer. Especially when she went on to say "I completely recognise that, in the run-up to a general election Dominic Grieve might be calling for [publication] but nevertheless the fact is that many select committee reports are produced and the government has to respond properly. It can't respond in haste..."

Funny that "in the run-up to an election" government couldn't "act on their report within a couple of days".

Former attorney general Dominic Grieve calls for a report into alleged Russian interference to be published before the general election, and says Number 10's justification for not releasing it is "completely and totally untrue. It's a lie"

Read more: https://t.co/a8StmgpFRo pic.twitter.com/i6kIsEwaA3

— Sky News Politics (@SkyNewsPolitics) November 2, 2019

When they knock on the door... 

Is this really the best the Conservative party can do?

Here’s a game both for the media and people at home

This is Tory general election brief for candidates - and here’s the page with suggested answers to qs

Why not read along with candidates when they deliver preprepared lines? Surprise them by pre-empting what they’ll say next! pic.twitter.com/uuu4QAHnQq

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) November 2, 2019

More news of those Brexit riots

Always on the button, the Sheffield Star reports "Confusion as NO ONE turns up for 'huge' pro Brexit demo in Doncaster".

Brexit Day (No 3) +1 - The "throw a dead deal on the table" election

This morning we saw a report from a committee of Parliament - The detention of young people with learning disabilities and/or autism - reported alongside the harrowing stories of people who've suffered from inadequate services and inadequate law. Other committees might be beavering away to finish their own reports before the end of the parliamentary session, when they lose access to the facilities of Parliament, and the committees cease to exist.

What we didn't see was the Intelligence and Security Committee report which Dominic Grieve raised the alarm about yesterday. As he told the Commons, "in accordance with the Justice and Security Act 2013, we sent [it] to the Prime Minister on 17 October for him to confirm that there were no classified matters remaining. There ought not to be, because the report has already been carefully looked at by the Cabinet Office. That confirmation should have been received by today to enable publication before the House is dissolved". But that confirmation seems still to be unavailable.

Today, some of those infamous "anonymous sources" have told Alberto Nardelli of Buzzfeed that there's nothing to see here, and that we should all move along and stop making a fuss. The fact remains, however, that a committee of Parliament - not just the Commons - which is required to exist by its own Act of Parliament, has undertaken an investigation of Russian money and misinformation operations and their effects on British democracy, that the report is complete, and that we might not see it until after a general election. If ever.

(Incidentally, it's rather amusing, and also something to be fixed toot sweet, that the independent website of the independent Intelligence and Security Committee is not itself secure.)

We therefore have a man who's considered trustworthy enough (and in most contexts we'd consider him "establishment" enough) to be granted access to the operations of British spooks, who's really annoyed successive Conservative governments for the last couple of years but not been relieved of those responsibilities, who's labelled a "traitor" by sundry Brexity social media warriors, and who's led his equally trustworthy bunch of Conservative, Labour, SNP and crossbench MPs and peers in producing a report.

Which might be relevant to an election campaign.

And which Number Ten appears not to want to see published. Not a good look.

Where do we go from here?

Parliament is still staggering on, as noted above about committee reports, but not for long. Dissolution comes next Wednesday, 6 November, at which point all the legislation which is now in play will be lost.

We might hope that the Domestic Abuse Bill, which was messed about by Johnson's initial, unlawful prorogation, will come back in. This deceitfully initiated session (the sovereign will no doubt absolutely love coming back just before Christmas to deliver another Queen's speech, which will sound suspiciously like the one she's just done) has had time for little more, but it would be very interesting indeed if the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill wasn't also reintroduced in its current form.

IFF it's a Conservative government doing it...

The next important date is 14 November, when nominations of candidates close, and now Farage has given it extra significance, as that's the day he promises to unleash his full slate of candidates on the world if Johnson doesn't play his game (see below).

After the election on 12 December, Parliament will reopen for "business" (swearing in and not much else) on Monday 16th, before packing up again three days later. Will the Lords even bother turning up?

Then they start again on 6 January, with Brexit No 4 looming at the end of the month. There's going to have to be a Queen's speech at some point, and whoever ends up running a government will have to prove they have a majority.

It makes you wonder how they ever get anything done.

An unstoppable force stumbles into the light

Donald Trump happened to discover the landline number of a British radio station yesterday, and happened to call just as his old mucker Nigel Farage happened to be on the air. They exchanged a few astonished pleasantries - "What are the chances of that then?" they laughed over each other at one point... [not really]

The stunt worked, in that it dominated front pages and broadcast media first thing this morning. Speaking to one of his fellow employees on LBC ahead of his party's launch event this morning, "Farage refused to give clues as to whether his party would be fighting a national campaign, or a narrowly-focused, constituency-specific one. He said: 'Some newspapers are suggesting that we will fight vast numbers of seats, others think we will fight as few as 20 seats. I run a very tight ship, we don’t leak. I will reveal all later on today.'".

And so he did. I was trying to discover the actual location of Brexit Party Ltd's election campaign launch, and found this, from authoritative blog-of-record Guido Fawkes: "the Brexit Party are to hold a rally in Parliament Square on the day the UK is due to leave the EU [1 November; surely some mistake], either in celebration of independence or anger at parliamentarians once again pushing pointless delay". The best laid plans of mice and registered company number 11694875, eh?

The event's message was for Boris Johnson: Join a Leave Alliance with us and a few Labour-Leavey-types we'll tell you about later, dump your agreement with 27 other countries, and we'll take over some constituencies where you don't have a chance but we do, and we can clobber Labour, and we'll leave you alone in areas where you should win on your own, and you'll emerge with a stonking majority. Otherwise we'll stand against you everywhere and... (the logic started to fall apart here; I couldn't tell whether Farage was threatening Johnson with a Labour majority, the loss of Brexit, or both).

A frighteningly large number of Conservative party members (not all of them infiltrators) would probably have snapped that up, but MPs and the party machine seem to think that something called the Conservative party matters, so the answer so far has been No.

Commentators were working out what the actual likely effect might be. Professor Rob Ford of Manchester University offered a long Twitter thread beginning "People seem to be forgetting there are a lot less Labour Leave votes in Labour Leave seats now than in 2016 because a lot of them switched to Cons in 2017. So BXP candidates in Lab Leave seats will usually take more votes from Cons...".

The British Election Study came to a similar conclusion: "There are some caveats. It is possible that there may be some small subset of seats, where the Brexit party is more attractive to recent Labour voters, and the Conservatives have done a good job of reclaiming Brexit party voters since June. But even with these caveats, it is hard to see how the Brexit party will hurt Labour more than the Conservatives".

And, just to help, Matt Chorley at the Times Red Box dug out this analysis of British attitudes to Donald Trump.

Chart shows why Trump's intervention is bad for Johnson, and good for Corbyn

(thanks to @mattsmithetc @yougov)https://t.co/ffP2okhJ4Y pic.twitter.com/X8qNqAs2f9

— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) November 1, 2019

We don't do bribery and corruption around here

Oh no, not at all. The impending social media election wars have led media companies to allocate digital analysts to "tell us what's going on". We've heard variously that the LibDems got started early and are consumer-testing various images of Jo Swinson, that Labour have just kicked off a solid campaign, and that the Conservatives might have posted an ad directed at the good people of Milton Keynes, informing them that Jeremy Corbyn was rude about them once.

But these people are still assuming that their objects of study will play by the rules. Quite apart from a £100m "Get Ready..." campaign, which was supposed to cement Brexit, a Conservative government and the idea of "getting it done" in electors' minds (government websites are now being changed wholesale, with "Get Ready For Brexit" becoming "Find Out More About Brexit'), we have the My Town campaign.

A week ago, the "town" I live on the edge of was the subject of this Facebook post. Many other towns have reported the same. And local information on the scheme is already out there - Marketing Stockport tells us "Cheadle to benefit from new Towns Fund". A local opposition councillor, however, points out that there "may be no money for Cheadle in Government towns fund". Nobody has received a penny yet of course, but it has been noticed that the lucky towns nominated so far seem to be Conservative areas or parts of marginal constituencies.

Yvette Cooper asks, "How on earth has Mark Sedwill allowed this to happen? Did permanent secretaries go along with this Tory abuse of government advertising?".

A happy ending

It has to happen sometimes.

After many months of suspicion that they were holding back progress on their investigations of electoral malpractice during the Brexit referendum, perhaps under political pressure, the Metropolitan Police have "submitted a file to the CPS for Early Investigative Advice in relation to the second investigation, which followed a referral by the Electoral Commission on 19 July 2018 and concerns Vote Leave and Be Leave".

It could still take a long time, and it could still come to nothing, but OpenDemocracy suggests that "the timing of the submitted file by the Met for what is termed 'Early Investigative Advice' from the CPS could not be worse for the prime minister" in the run-up to an election.

We can only stand and stare.

Brexit day (no 3) - The "I've done what I can" election

When John Bercow announced his resignation, one of his guiding ideas was to have the next speaker elected by a chamber who know the candidates, rather than by a house with a hundred or so neophytes shepherded through the votes "to best effect" by their party machines. This is an example of Bercow's good side, and it looks as if he's going to get his way, with the election to replace him now scheduled for Monday 4 November.

The sessions of tributes to him, and later to his own selection as speaker's chaplain Rose Hudson-Wilkin, were gushing and interminable, and he sat there lapping it up - not an example of his better side - though Chi Onwurah put it nicely: "I find it very hard to imagine this Chamber without you, although I do hope the electors in Newcastle give me the opportunity to find out".

Please note: the vote is on Thursday 12 December and Parliament re-opens the following Monday for swearing in of MPs.

Corbyn greeting Andrew Gwynne,
Labour's campaign coordinator, at the launch

Battersea

Meanwhile, out here in the real world, Jeremy Corbyn was launching the Labour campaign (not the manifesto, as Clive Lewis would have to admit later to Andrew Neil - that still has to be written by the Clause 5 Committee).

Corbyn's speech was mostly familiar stuff I'm not going to analyse here - it's going to be a long election - though the idea that this is the "last chance to tackle the climate emergency" - with or without a "Green Industrial Revolution at the heart of Labour’s plan to transform Britain" was perhaps a bit much for the first day.

"Labour will get Brexit sorted within six months. We’ll let the people decide whether to leave with a sensible deal or remain. That really isn’t complicated." We'll see. Perhaps.

"I travel all around our country and listen to people. This is what I learn from them: they don’t see politics like the media and political class do." This might be heresy, but I'd be surprised if we don't hear pretty much the same from every party at some point.

"The Prime Minister wants you to believe that we’re having this election because Brexit is being blocked by an establishment elite. People aren’t fooled so easily. They know the Conservatives are the establishment elite. And you know what really scares the elite? All of us, the British people. What the elite are actually afraid of is paying their taxes.

"So we’re going after the tax dodgers. We’re going after the dodgy landlords. We’re going after the bad bosses. We’re going after the big polluters. Because we know whose side we’re on. And the big question of this election is: whose side are you on?"

He personalised it, naming a handful of the villains Labour will be "going after", and followed it immediately with "And we have something that the Rupert Murdochs, the Mike Ashleys, and the Boris Johnsons don’t have. We have people". Which - I'm sorry - is vacuous tripe.

And it was picked up later as "unashamed class war", maybe a lazy label from Sarah Montague on World At One (available through most of November), though Professor Rob Ford told us it was "very much the approach last time, and last time [Corbyn] achieved the largest campaign swing in polling history, so if it ain't broke don't fix it is probably the thinking at Labour HQ".

Labour's Laura Pidcock dismissed the "class war" accusation with a laugh. "What's divisive about bringing together the majority of people in this country? The majority of people in this country are not millionaires, billionaires, speculators... Jeremy Corbyn was talking about that. They are in a tiny minority, and he's saying 'Whose side are you on?'"

Whose side are you on? What's divisive about that?

The Conservative party  campaign has been going from
early September. And we've been paying for it.

Some playschool in middle England

It's difficult to work out when the Conservative campaign started. Work from the day Johnson was appointed, though, and you probably won't go far wrong. There is the small matter of his never having achieved a majority in the Commons, but I won't tell the Queen if you won't.

He was continuing his tour of the primary schools of England, and there'll be plenty of time in the next few weeks for more on that stuff. More important was a point of order raised in the Commons by Dominic Grieve, who may not have much longer left in the public eye. He chairs Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee, which has privileged access - as the title suggests - to the intelligence services and the security apparatus of the UK.

Grieve said: "The Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament, of which I am the Chair, has been investigating the threat posed to this country by Russia. We have produced a report, which, in accordance with the Justice and Security Act 2013, we sent to the Prime Minister on 17 October for him to confirm that there were no classified matters remaining. There ought not to be, because the report has already been carefully looked at by the Cabinet Office. That confirmation should have been received by today to enable publication before the House is dissolved, but I regret to say that it has not been. We thus have a Committee of Parliament waiting to lay before the House a report that comments directly on what has been perceived as a threat to our democratic processes. Parliament and the public ought to and must have access to this report in the light of the forthcoming election, and it is unacceptable for the Prime Minister to sit on it and deny them that information".

At the time of writing, nothing more has been heard from Johnson's tour of hospital wards ("Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits Addenbrooke’s Hospital - but is reportedly ‘booed’ out") and finger painting classes of the UK, but I'm sure he'll be heartened by the judgement of a vox-popper this morning on the Today programme - "I'm going to vote for Boris because he's a really naughty boy". As Newsnight's diplomatic editor tells us "failure to [publish the report] because of a refusal by No 10 to sign it off may be seen by many as an attempt to suppress evidence of previous Russian attempts to subvert UK polls".

London - air pollution capital of the UK

And what have the Liberal Democrats been up to? Not a lot today, apart from running a diesel vehicle around central London to try out a poster or two, and incidentally to annoy a Guardian journalist.

Build a brighter future with idling diesels!

Apologies, this seems to have been slightly doctored
along the way.

The party of nowhere

And now, Brexit Party Ltd seems to be having a bit of a rethink. The message went out last night: "Message from HQ ... IMPORTANT. Please go DARK on social media. DO NOT respond to any questions about where we are standing, what the strategy or plan is from now".

Will they not, after all, be standing in "all 650 seats in the UK" (despite not being registered for elections in Northern Ireland)? The operation has been naming prospective parliamentary candidates all over the place (and that "prospective" can be important; in theory, calling yourself an actual candidate opens you up to having to declare everything you do, even months before the actual election, as an election expense). One of them was asked this morning on Today whether the whole-UK approach is still the plan, and she didn't know. She was going to have to ask her election agent. If she ever gets one, since they don't have any local parties. Or members.

Foreign news

Nigel Farage, who must still be earning his media masters at Global more money than opprobrium, invited his old mucker Donald Trump on to LBC this evening, just for a bit of mild intervening in another country's elections, you understand. I suspect we'll touch on this tomorrow.

Sticks and stones may break my bones, but focus grouped words...

The badge of the Downing St Misdirection Unit

I'm looking for a surrender.

On Friday night's Any Questions on Radio 4 Nadhim Zahawi MP spoke from the standard script of the moment. Health secretary Matt Hancock and Paul Scully, the Conservative party's deputy chair, came out on Sunday and used identical terms. The European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019 must be called not the Benn Act, which is an obvious short name (remember the Brady amendment?) but the Surrender Act "because that's what it is".

The phrase has caught on - indeed it's been focus grouped, polished and pumped out non-stop - and is picked up by Brexiters known and unknown. Every time it's rejected or contradicted (and this post will be guilty of the same) it's reinforced in the public mind. So Andy Burnham tells Sky News "the ‘take no prisoners’ approach to Brexit is ‘unnerving people...ratcheting up the atmosphere’" and Matthew d'Ancona includes it as one of many examples in his long read about "the new network politics of the Right".

It's easy to throw two words round, but there is occasionally a whole argument that goes with them - that "the EU" will not negotiate seriously if they think No Deal has been "taken off the table". The script demands that the Act's workings are exaggerated - it actually only prevents exit without a withdrawal agreement on 31 October, by means of a request for extension of the Article 50 process to 31 January - and that its effect is presented as absolute. And many angry voices tell us this whenever they can.

The moment at which Johnson tells Paula Sherriff that her appeal
for more moderate language is "humbug".

But where is this effect? When Zahawi addressed the second question on Any Questions he was suddenly telling us about all the progress the UK negotiators are making. Again, it's a standard script, as reeled off by Johnson himself on Wednesday (the first day in the Commons we had the Supreme Court to thank for - he planned to be free of  scrutiny until at least 14 October):

"Some 64 days ago, I was told that Brussels would never reopen the withdrawal agreement; we are now discussing a reopened withdrawal agreement in the negotiations. I was told that Brussels would never consider alternatives to the backstop - the trap that keeps the UK effectively in the EU but with no say; we are now discussing those alternatives in the negotiations. I was told that Brussels would never consider arrangements that were not permanent; we are now discussing in the negotiations an arrangement that works on the principle of consent and is not permanent. I was told that there was no chance of a new deal, but we are discussing a new deal, in spite of the best efforts of the Labour party and this Parliament to wreck our negotiations by their attempts to take no deal off the table."

"In spite of.." eh? You mean the best efforts of Labour and Parliament - including the famous Act - have failed to prevent progress? The misdirection campaign doesn't need to bear any resemblance to the facts, so long as it's loud and consistent. What is it supposed to achieve? Togetherness among d'Ancona's "networked right", suspicion building to hate, readiness for a "People v Parliament" election, but obviously not violence, though that would be quite understandable, you know. As Johnson's top adviser Dominic Cummings told Karl Turner MP, if you want to avoid death threats "get Brexit done".

****

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay: "There's a long way to go".

That same Friday, DExEU secretary Stephen Barclay told the media "The UK government is planning to put out 'concrete proposals' next week for reaching a Brexit deal with the EU". The idea is to take them over after the Conservative party conference - after gaining the full support of the Tory faithful, or for fear that the membership would cause trouble in Manchester if they knew the plans? Assume that Barnier sees these proposals  on Thursday 3 October, just four weeks before the current Brexit day, and hope that, for a change, the documents can actually be seen by the 27 other members, and maybe even some real people outside or inside London, rich or poor, pro- or anti-Brexit.

Yet actual letters exchanged between Barclay and Michel Barnier before the talks the minister had just returned from tell a different story. Barclay signals that the UK is not ready for leaving with no deal - there are subjects which should be "explore[d] jointly" to make it "work". Things like "how we maintain the flow of trade in goods and passengers at points of entry/exit... exchange of data [and] citizens rights" need joint work, and it really would be nice if the member states relaxed their refusal to engage in "bilateral discussions". Barnier's response is basically "No":

"As we mentioned in previous letters to you and your predecessors, we believe that the Withdrawal Agreement is the best way to protect citizens and business. Every issue raised in your letter... has already been addressed comprehensively in the Withdrawal Agreement. There is no other way to achieve all the benefits that the Withdrawal Agreement provides."

The same reports which gave us Barclay's positive slant included the European Commission's response, which sounded rather familiar: "Mr Barnier had stressed to Mr Barclay during the meeting that it was 'essential' there was a 'fully operational solution in the withdrawal agreement to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, protect the all-island economy and the integrity of the single market'. The EU remains open and willing to examine any workable and legally operative proposals that meet all these objectives".

So what is actually preventing progress? Is it a piece of "remainer" legislation (passed by MPs many of whom have voted for Brexit and would do again, if there was a deal), or is it Johnson's refusal to make any kind of proposal? Strangely all the British reports from negotiations are upbeat (if a little "inventive"). No mention of the EU suddenly refusing to talk after that terrible Act became law on 9 September.

RTE's Tony Connelly, one of the best commentators on this whole sorry mess, gives us a different view, based on actual evidence of talking to the people involved: "The appetite for the EU to be flexible on the backstop has been intimately linked with Johnson’s ability to get the agreement through parliament. If there’s no prospect of that, there’s no reason to be flexible".

Today, Sunday 29 September 2019, Boris Johnson has been prime minister for 67 days, and MPs and peers have actually been in what John Bercow pointedly called their "place of work" when they returned from unlawful suspension for nine of those days.

Johnson has still not demonstrated a majority in the Commons. Indeed, he has lost every significant vote in his prime ministerial career.

And if you wondered, "ecce illic" is a Google-aided Latin motto which loosely translates as "Look over there!".

He's not very good at this, is he?

It's hard to get an angle on what's going on at the moment, so let's start with the version that's least likely to be true, the gospel according to Saint Boris, and work out from there.

****

The Conservative party contrived to run a leadership election which delivered its verdict in July, two days before the Commons was due to close down for summer holiday. Before that, however, they fitted in a pantomime of three acts:

• On the Wednesday the then incumbent took an official car with a full set of outriders to the Palace, then left there after an appropriately brief termination interview to be whisked away to her home in Maidenhead (or the pub round the corner - the helicopter didn't follow her far) with fewer outriders.
• After a standard phone tip-off (or something more modern, but somehow I doubt it) the new boy then set off from Number 10 with the full cavalcade and returned to deliver a rambling campaign speech to the world's press in Downing St.
• On the Thursday he found his way to the Commons. He didn't mention a Queen's speech or a majority, but he launched into a speech shot through with his trade mark groundless "optimism": "By 2050, it is more than possible that the United Kingdom will be the greatest and most prosperous economy in Europe". 

I was watching for something about a Queen's speech and a majority because I'd been asking questions throughout the leadership contest - pointlessly on Twitter, and very, very slightly less pointlessly by directing them at TV programmes who promised to "ask the candidates". He might have supplied the information to various audiences, but I wasn't in any of them.

Before Johnson spoke the new Leader of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg, outlined the next week's business (a next week which would occur in September) and sparred with his opposite number Valerie Vaz for the first time. Again, you can read the Hansard account if you want (I'd advise just the top couple of exchanges).

She asked: "What is going on with the conference recess? Is proroguing still on the menu? Can he rule that out? We know that the Prime Minister gave a mini manifesto on the steps of Downing Street. When will we have a new Session of Parliament?". And he replied, "She knows that recesses are a matter for this House to determine. No doubt a proposal will be made through the usual channels, but I imagine that it would be convenient for Members to be able to attend their own party conferences. That is what has happened previously, and it tends to be to everybody’s benefit... The issue of Prorogation is absolutely marvellous, because the hon. Lady asked for a new Session and asked when this Session would end, and then asked me to promise that we would not prorogue. We cannot have both, because we cannot get to a new Session without proroguing."

The conference recess had not been approved and therefore had not been scheduled.

At this point Johnson had been prime minister (being generous) for two days, and he had not demonstrated a majority.

And so everybody went off on holiday or, as whispers to the media and some later revelations made clear, plotting. Brexit was 99 days away and No Deal was looming large. And prorogation was still in the air, with sinister variants floated probably by the Downing St Misdirection Unit. Amendments had been made to the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2019 to require reports to be presented to the Commons at regular intervals. These were intended to prevent what was probably the worst prorogation option - suspension of Parliament through the end of October with No Deal happening automatically - by requiring the Commons to be sitting and, as we'll see later, that part did work. You can find the amendments by working through the top two documents here.

There was much talk of votes of no confidence and caretaker governments. To begin with this was mostly within and between opposition parties other than Labour, and names like Ken Clarke and Harriet Harman were mentioned as possible Prime Ministers of a government of national unity. What such a government would do was problematic. A referendum on Brexit was a popular idea, which seemed to be pushing it - what combination of parties and rebels could possibly hold together for long enough to call and run a referendum and run the country alongside it?

Labour was thinking differently - when asked, it reminded the world that Corbyn would be the only legitimate prime minister after a vote of no confidence. (The FT's legal commentator David Allen Green agreed: "Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition and so should have first dibs on forming a government if this one falls".) Eventually Corbyn published a letter with a simpler plan - himself as Prime Minister in a "strictly time-limited temporary government with the aim of calling a General Election, and securing the necessary extension of article 50 to do so".

Meanwhile, another, quieter group was exploring a different avenue - to pass a special law to prevent No Deal - and government occasionally assured us that they were not thinking of proroguing Parliament, and definitely didn't want a quick election.

Then suddenly prorogation was on every news bulletin, presented as a fait accompli, though it had had to battle with leaks and dramatic sackings. On 28 August, Big Jake Mogg, Lords leader Baroness Evans and government chief whip Mark Spencer travelled to the queen's summer retreat at Balmoral for a hastily arranged meeting of "the Privy Council" (one of the many undemocratic parts of our "unwritten" constitution I'd dearly love to reform out of existence). They took with them "advice" from Johnson which she couldn't ignore, and came away with a proclamation of prorogation. Parliament was still on holiday, and was about to be informed that its services would not be needed again for a while.

At this point Johnson had been prime minister for 36 days, with Parliament sitting for all of two of them, and he had not demonstrated a majority.

3 September - Parliament resumes for four days

At last, the following Tuesday, MPs were allowed back into the Commons, and some of them decided there was not a moment to lose. Parliament could be suspended as early as the next Monday, and something had to be done quickly. The quieter inter-party group had their draft law ready, so the back benches were going to have to take over again.

Johnson had been at a G7 event the previous week, and held meetings with Macron and Merkel, who were studiously polite to him, in the hope that something could be retrieved from the apparent vacuum of his thinking on the subject of a Brexit plan.

Downing St reports of these meetings (as has happened again and again) told us how positive they had been and that Macron opened up to the idea of changes to the Withdrawal Agreement, but the main prize was Merkel's "30 day deadline", which was nothing of the sort. She had observed exasperatedly that British ministers had previously proposed developments to avoid the Irish backstop during the agreed transition period (two or three years), so why not do it all in 30 days if it was as easy as Johnson kept claiming? He grabbed the idea of a deadline gleefully as a way to block out a whole month (from little more than two remaining before 31 October) and a way to confuse daily demands for progress reports.

A prime minister's duties include reports on such events to the Commons, but shortly after Johnson began, Philip Lee, Conservative MP for Bracknell, walked up the aisle and joined the Liberal Democrats on the other side of the house. Hansard records Johnson's response as follows: "...Britain is on the verge of taking back control of our trade policy and restoring our independent seat in the WTO for the first time in 46 years. Our exports to the United States—[Interruption.] I wish my hon. Friend the Member for Bracknell (Dr Lee) all the best".

Oliver Letwin

That was the government's majority gone, and it was to get worse. Three hours later, Oliver Letwin stood up to propose an emergency debate and the Speaker agreed. The details of the proposal can been seen in Hansard, but the effect of it was that the back benches would take the house over for much of the following day to process the bill which had by then been published.

The next day (after the small matter of the Speaker announcing his resignation) the short Benn bill went through all its stages in the Commons, supported by a larger vote than expected, as 21 Conservatives voted with the assembled opposition parties. They later lost the Conservative whip. Having already announced a prorogation which wasn't going to happen, Johnson now proceeded to request a general election that he had told us he didn't want (and which would prevent the agreement of the Brexit deal he tells us he does want by halting negotiations during purdah).

His tenuous working majority had had a great hole knocked in it on the only policy which mattered, and he lost. A vote of 434 MPs was required, and opposition parties abstained (my explanation on Twitter: "The opposition parties all want an election as soon as possible. They will obviously be 'competitors' in an election, but they're united - for a short time - only - on tying Johnson down to avoid No Deal if they can".). By the weekend, the government having given up fighting it, the Benn bill had passed through the Lords.

Royal assent then made it the Benn Act on Monday 9 September, and government lost control again, in an emergency vote to require ministers to hand over documents detailing its prorogation decision and Operation Yellowhammer, then yet another emergency vote on "Ministers’ obligation to comply with the law". Oh, and another attempt to call an election also failed.

At this point Johnson had been prime minister for 48 days, with Parliament sitting for just six of them, and he had not demonstrated a majority. In fact he had lost every vote he had gone for.

10 September - Parliament suspended for five weeks

While all of this was going on, a variety of cases had been heard by the lower courts of England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, all in one way or another to challenge the suspension of Parliament. All were eventually referred to an expedited hearing in the Supreme Court on 17, 18 and 19 September (with an issue related to the Good Friday Agreement retained for the appeal court in Northern Ireland).

The case was that the prime minister's "advice" to the Queen, as conveyed by that impromptu Privy Council meeting, was unlawful and that, by extension, the Prime Minister had lied to the Queen, an accusation which had led the news all day on 12 September when the higher Scottish court ruled that prorogation was illegal (not a good look, as Johnson answered the accusation on TV again and again).

Documents provided to the Scottish courts, then made public, showed two simple things:

• Despite many protests that they weren't considering prorogation at all, Johnson's inner circle had it in hand as early as 14 August.
• The length of the suspension was determined according to the requirements of the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act - everything they could get away with.

The claim that prorogation was simply to prepare for a Queen's speech and to open a new Parliamentary session therefore seemed untenable (the conference recess, used to argue that only a handful of days in Parliament would actually be lost, had never been approved, as we saw above). The Supreme Court had to consider two questions:

• Was this a purely political question and therefore outside the purview of the court, or was it justiciable under the rules of judicial review?
• Assuming justiciability, was the decision lawful, or was its purpose to "stymie parliamentary scrutiny of the executive, which [is] a central pillar of the good governance principle enshrined  in the constitution".

We might hear by Monday. Will suspension be judged unlawful? Will the court order the government to open Parliament up again? Will Johnson comply with the law (as he constantly tells us he will)? Will he try to prorogue again?

At that point Johnson will have been prime minister for 62 days, with Parliament sitting for six of them, and he will still not have demonstrated a majority or won a vote in the Commons. Will he have won a court case? We'll see.

Leaving that there, how does the Johnson gospel see the next few weeks at the moment?

14 October - Queen's speech

Arrangements for the Queen's speech in 2017 didn't go smoothly - May sprang it on the Palace and it had to be fitted in with other events, from an award ceremony at Windsor Castle which had to be cancelled, to attendance at Royal Ascot. Also, the usual horses wouldn't be available because they hadn't been rehearsed thanks to a near clash with the Queen's birthday and Trooping the Colour. May also hadn't quite delivered the DUP, despite her promises.

Has Johnson done any better? We can only assume that he intends to stick to the nominated day whatever happens at the Supreme Court, but he has bigger problems with his majority than she had. He's certainly not in a strong position on the Conservative-DUP agreement which has to be reviewed at the end of each Parliamentary session.  It's fair to say that most if not all of the suspended Conservative MPs would probably vote with the government on most issues, but does that extend to a Queen's speech?

15 October - Debate on Queen's speech

The debate is normally four or five days, and that time has been allowed. If we've got this far, and if there's no plan for a further prorogation, he'd be hoping for a lively debate on his sparkling array of new bills to finally kick off his time as Prime Minister. But it isn't that simple.

17-18 - EU Council meeting

According to Johnson's plans, this is where his spiffing new agreement will finally be negotiated, but that's not what the meeting is for. The Council will only consider a completed draft agreement produced by the negotiations which are stutteringly under way at the moment. We should know well in advance if there's anything to discuss.

19 October - Decision day for the Benn Act

Hilary Benn

This is a Saturday, so I'm not sure how it's supposed to go. Johnson tells us he will return triumphant, brandishing his deal, on Friday night, but the act requires Parliament's agreement on a deal or on No Deal "no later than 19 October 2019" so Parliament - both Houses - would have to be sitting. Agreement of a No Deal Brexit must be by a simple Commons vote. Agreement of a deal must be by one of the famous "meaningful votes" as specified in the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018.

If neither agreement is forthcoming, Johnson is required to send a letter to Donald Tusk to request an extension of the Article 50 period, which he has said he won't do. He's also said he will obey the law, which looks like a contradiction.

There might be a sneaky way round this requirement, and moves are afoot to close that loophole too, which would have to be done during the first three days allocated to the Queen's speech debate.

21-22 October - Votes on Queen's speech

Not knowing the full list of bills, I don't know how this will go. In particular, will the promised Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill be such that the suspended Tories will support it? If not, Johnson is nowhere near a majority. Losing these votes would pile crisis on crisis, but if they somehow passed there would be ten days to go until Halloween. Does Johnson then ask Parliament to switch to 24/7 working to make it even half way possible to ratify his baby?

Of course, he might have requested an extension and had it confirmed, which would change everything.

Or he could have resigned rather than do that.

Or he could have resigned when the Supreme Court told him he was a liar.

23 October - It depends

EU Parliament calendar 2019

Either this will be the first day of what Johnson insists on calling "ample time to debate Brexit".

With a "meaningful vote" out of the way, all that's required is to pass a large, contentious Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill which nobody outside the inner circle has yet seen, but which has to get through all stages in both houses of Parliament.

Oh, and the EU Parliament has to debate and agree the draft agreement. They've been waiting for the Commons so far, but they'd have to do this in parallel. And they could reject it.

Or everybody will have to start improvising madly.

31 October - Brexit

This, as far as possible, has been Johnson's vision of the timetable. There are holes, distractions and detours all the way through. I wish I was studying it and not having to live it.

By Halloween, assuming he survives that long, Johnson will have been prime minister for 100 days. I'm not going to guess what small number of them Parliament has been sitting by then, but I will ask: Will he have won a vote in the Commons?