Thursday, 30 May 2019

Questions for leaders in waiting



Way back in April, the 28 member states of the EU agreed another extension of the Article 50 period, defining a Brexit date of 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, 1 September, 1 October or 1 November according to when a withdrawal agreement can be ratified.

Remember, for the UK to ratify an agreement, the current law says that the Commons has to agree a motion and the Commons and Lords have to pass a new law to implement it. Other laws would still be required to "make it work". None of that changes with a new prime minister unless that current law is changed.

For the EU to ratify an agreement, the EU Parliament has to approve it, then the EU Council has to vote for it. Any proposed changes to the current withdrawal package would first have to go through a negotiation process and approval at least by the member states' representatives in Brussels.

The last extended date for Brexit is already seven weeks behind us, so how are the next five months going to pan out?


24 MayMay announces she will resign, kicks off a phoney Tory war; candidates begin to step forward
7 JuneMay resigns as Tory leader, stays on as prime minister
10 JuneLeadership election begins
2 JulyNew EU Parliament sits for the first time
22 JulyNew Tory leader announced; this could be earlier according to progress in the contest; May is still prime minister until the new leader is invited by the queen to form a government
24 JulyUK Parliament goes on summer break (actual date to be confirmed)
3 SeptemberUK Parliament returns for a few days
16 SeptemberUK Parliament off again for conferences
8 OctoberUK Parliament back to work
17-18 OctoberEU Council - the last chance to ratify a Brexit deal before Halloween?
1 NovemberBrexit

During this time Michel Barnier might have been selected as the new president of the EU Commission (to take office on 1 November). His deputy, Sabine Weyand, already has a new job to go on to at the EU trade directorate.

At some point after 2 July, or whenever the new leader is announced, he or she has to try to convince her or his party, the DUP, the queen and the rest of us that he or she can command a majority. With luck she or he will be asked to form a government.

Will there be a new parliamentary session, and therefore a new queen's speech? If so there is the possibility that legislation such as the new Trade Bill might fall and have to be started again later. There's also the possibility that the new leader's programme will not be agreed, which opens up the chance of a vote of no confidence and even a general election, which would be even more fun.

When can any of this happen?

When is the queen on holiday?

When are MPs available to approve any deal for ratification, or any no deal for that matter?

When are MEPs available to approve any new deal for ratification? They'll be finding their feet and confirming (or not) the new commission.

When do any of these candidates for leader expect to negotiate their own, new deals (the question goes to you as well Mr Corbyn). Who do they expect to negotiate with?

These are questions every interviewer should address with every candidate until the leadership election is finished, and with some of them afterwards.


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