Sunday, 25 February 2018

Deep, special and ambitious managed divergence


Cabinet members arrive (at some speed) at the Chequers
front gate
War cabinet is a snappier name than European Union Exit and Trade (Strategy and Negotiations) Subcommittee but a depressing one nonetheless ("dreamy nickname" anybody?) Who's supposed to like the short name? People who think about Brexit in World War 2 terms? Who's not supposed to like it? EU27 heads of government who think of the EU partly in terms of preventing war? Who invented the term? The idiot Boris Johnson who still seems to think at least partly in headlines, or somebody in the media who at least is supposed to? More interestingly, are people aware that those people on the other side of the table actually read our papers?

T
Olly Robbins Europe Adviser to the Prime Minister
The subcommittee gathered at Theresa May's prime ministerial retreat last Thursday to work out what Brexit might mean, what kind of future relationship to seek in the remaining eight months of negotiation. According to Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times, the plan they came up with (which was the plan May went in with, though she gave it to her top Brexit civil servant Olly Robbins to present), the position that has led to so much manoeuvring and low-level blood-letting in recent weeks is to
  • Demand mutual recognition of standards for goods traded between the UK and the EU
  • Make a public commitment that British standards will remain as high as those of the EU
  • Pledge to keep rules and regulations “substantially similar”
  • Insist upon the creation of a dispute mechanism to oversee areas where the UK wants to diverge from EU regulations — and that the European Court of Justice would have no role in it
To which I can only say, Is that it? Isn't that just a restatement of the three baskets idea which the EU side has rejected as cherry picking?  A narrative description of this "ambitious managed divergence" is more telling: "We are going to be associate members of various agencies on things like aviation, chemicals and pharmaceuticals and then we get [EU] market access and don’t need to have our products checked in more than one jurisdiction. We can decide at any time, in the full knowledge that there are consequences, that we don’t want to be regulated in this way" which seems just a little naive and/or presumptuous.

One particular disagreement Shipman mentions was between Greg Clark, the business secretary, and Boris Johnson, still astonishingly our foreign secretary. Clark "gave a presentation on the consequences of divergence for the car industry" and Johnson stressed that "divergence was essential to ensure innovation".

Honda's plant in Swindon
I'd normally refer to Nissan on the subject of Brexit and the automotive industry, but let's talk Honda for a change. Patrick Keating, Government Affairs Manager for Honda Motor Europe, told the Commons business select committee last November that the company "would need clarity" by March this year on "what happens to the customs border". It would be "a year-long process between deciding we need to invest in additional warehousing and going through zoning, planning and investment" plus "internal decision-making procedures and the need to get clearance from Japan".

In addition, Honda is concerned about "regulation, and particularly type approvals". Talking to the EU Commission, said Mr Keating "there is a real risk that, as the UK leaves the single market, the type approvals issued by the... UK Vehicle Certification Agency, will either no longer hold validity or not be able to be extended". As we've heard recently this is a real problem - at Brexit "the United Kingdom approval authority [VCA] will cease to be an EU type-approval authority".

The Japanese ambassador to the UK accompanied a party of Japanese businessmen to No 10 on 8 February and was "unusually candid" afterwards in the view of several commentators: "If there is no profitability of continuing operations in the UK - not Japanese only - then no private company can continue operations. It is as simple as that. This is all high stakes that all of us, I think, need to keep in mind." Days later, Honda's management in Swindon stressed that the company "remains committed to our operations in the UK and Europe" and declared "we are working closely with the government to ensure the best conditions for our business following the UK’s exit from the European Union".

Greg Clark, Secretary of State for Business,
Energy and Industrial Strategy 
Honda don't want to have to build new warehousing or relocate their type approval people, and neither do they want to move production, not least because they have no similar plant elsewhere in the EU. Any of these things would cost money that's not in their current plans. They will be making full use of their contacts in London and Brussels to get some of that precious clarity by the end of next month - the EU Council meeting on 22-23 March might be the target date.

That kind of mundane stuff was no doubt part of Greg Clark's presentation, but Johnson countered with his characteristic bluntness. As Shipman puts it, "Johnson interrupted to say divergence was essential to ensure innovation. He cited the way EU rules had stopped him changing the design of lorries in London while he was mayor to make conditions safer for cyclists".

It's one of his favourite moans about EU regulation, but it has the disadvantage of being untrue. Johnson wants changes like wrap-round windows and mirrors to eliminate blind spots which have killed cyclists and the new features are likely to be with us soon. As Euractiv reported in 2014, member states held out against a series of changes to lorry design standards under pressure from their own manufacturers (and the Financial Times suggests the UK was one of them). It takes a long time to redesign a lorry, or a new set of standards, so there's constant to-ing and fro-ing between manufacturers, politicians and regulators. In the end the delay was reduced and“We did manage to force EU governments to agree to the introduction of a new and safer lorry-cab design, although only as of 2019,” said Keith Taylor, transport spokesman for the Greens in the European Parliament.

Political nitty-gritty too intruded into Chequers' panelled rooms, with chief whip Julian Smith warning of the "real, real danger" of Tory rebels voting with Labour to keep Britain in the customs union while David Davis pointed to hardliners threatening to force a leadership election if May drops her opposition to a customs union. Rees-Mogg's position at the head of the European Research Group "is a sign that they are militarising and have tanks on our lawn," said one of Shipman's sources.

Karen Bradley
Karen Bradley, the Northern Ireland secretary, told May she could not be sure her DUP allies would "turn up" for key votes. There was even talk of Sinn Fein’s seven MPs taking their seats if the UK fails to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the republic.

Some Eurosceptics outside the cabinet put little faith in May and her team holding their fragile truce together in the face of "intransigence" in Brussels. "Cabinet continues to live in a parallel universe," one is reported to have said. "The DD-May plan is doomed. Barnier will smash DD [David Davis] over the head and No 10 will fold as always." And remember, even after May's next speech, scheduled for Friday 1 May, the full cabinet will never have discussed and approved the approach. They will simply be expected to go along with it.

Thursday, 22 February 2018

Chequers away-day -- how to solve Brexit in a country house



Theresa May opens the discussion
















Amber Rudd counters a point from Michael Gove









As discussions unfold, unusual alliances begin to form around the cabinet table








Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond engage in close debate








Having met his match in argument, Sajid Javid is helped to the station by long-suffering staff

Wednesday, 7 February 2018

All of the good bits and none of the bad bits... please


Bernard Jenkin MP, chair of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Select Committee in the Commons, was quoted this morning as saying "It would be utterly perverse for the EU to impose tariffs on trade between the UK and the European Union and I don't think they would be so destructive [as] to do that".

He was interviewed with Ken Clarke (there to play the soft Brexit to Jenkin's hard) on the Radio 4 Today programme about a letter from the British Chamber of Commerce. The BCC's Director General Adam Marshall was warning the prime minister that "patience is wearing thin" - business is exasperated by the lack of a unified government position on a future UK-EU relationship.

The current live issue is customs, with May rejecting future membership of either the current EU customs union or a possible alternative customs union such as the EU has with Turkey or a smaller country like Andorra. She will happily discuss a customs arrangement or a customs partnership of course, as discussed in a paper the government published last August (it was labelled "magical thinking" by EU commentators and seemed to be quietly forgotten, but has been rediscovered with a new year).

Swiss borders with EU countries -
much of regular trade is handled digitally
but there are still checks. 
Jenkin's point is frequently argued - if a barrier to trade follows Brexit it's the EU's fault, because the UK has no intention of doing anything against our joint interests. Two points there:
  • None of this would be happening without a decision to leave the EU; it's May's Article 50 letter that started it all.
  • What would bring about barriers to trade would be failure to reach an agreement which eliminates them, plus the automatic operation of WTO rules. If there is no UK-EU Free Trade Agreement, the EU is duty bound to apply the same tariffs, quotas etc as it does to any other country with Most Favoured Nation status.
Then there's the Irish border, which Brexiters claim will be exactly as easy and open as it is now unless the Republic or, more likely, "the EU" decide to make it difficult.

But again, we started it, and May intends to take us out of the legal system which makes the border no more than a notional line on a map. All sorts of organisational and technological wheezes could be used to ease the waits, but without an agreement otherwise there will be a border, and EU law and WTO rules will require it to be managed.

Moving beyond tariffs, there are non-tariff barriers (NTBs) - differences in regulation and Rules of Origin. If May's customs arrangement, partnership or wotsit doesn't cover how UK-made and EU-made products are counted for onward export, and if she insists on retaining the right to diverge from EU rules, or fails to reach an agreement at all, there will be barriers. Who will have raised them? The EU won't have changed anything but we'll have become a third country, we'll have put ourselves outside the walls.

Everybody's looking to barriers between the UK and EU, but there are also hundreds of agreements we have with other countries as a member of the EU. Some are full Free Trade Agreements (like the one which guarantees Dan Hannan his tariff-free Chilean wine) and some just harmonisation of testing standards, but many of them are there to ease trade. As Fionna O'Leary points out, there are 142 with our largest single trading partner, the USA, of which around 50 have an impact on trade. If we fail to carry those over, by agreement with the EU and the US as necessary, are we going to blame the US for "erecting barriers to trade"?






UK (mostly) Bluesky starter packs

These are starter packs I've encountered ( mostly UK-based ), with the Bluesky account each one is associated with. I really did try to ...